The Thirty Percent Confession

 

Last time I told you the AI industry is paying a tax it doesn’t have to pay — that a great deal of what we grandly call “AI” is really just looking things up, and we’ve chosen to do that looking-up on the most expensive silicon ever manufactured. A number of you wrote to say I was overstating it. Surely, you said, the people setting hundreds of billions of dollars on fire know something I don’t.

So this week I won’t argue with you. I’ll let one of the largest companies in enterprise software argue with you instead — because it already has, in a research paper it published itself and seems to have hoped you wouldn’t read too closely.

The company is Salesforce. The same […]

By |June 2nd, 2026|2026, Artificial Intelligence, Uncategorized|1 Comment
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The Lying Machine

There is a lawsuit grinding through a federal court in Minnesota that every insurance executive in America should be reading instead of their quarterly AI roadmap.

The case is Estate of Lokken v. UnitedHealth Group. It was filed in late 2023 by the families of two deceased Medicare Advantage members, and it alleges that UnitedHealthcare used an artificial-intelligence tool called nH Predict to decide how much post-acute care its members were entitled to — and that the tool was wrong roughly nine times out of ten, a figure the plaintiffs draw from how often its denials were reversed on appeal. UnitedHealth denies that the tool makes coverage decisions at all; it calls nH Predict “a guide” and says the real decisions are made by clinicians […]

By |June 1st, 2026|2026, Artificial Intelligence|3 Comments
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The NVIDIA Tax

The Tax You’re Paying on a Chip You Never Bought

I live in Virginia, which means I have a front-row seat to the strangest tax increase in modern American life. Nobody voted for it. It isn’t on any ballot. But it’s showing up on the electric bills of people who have never typed a prompt into a chatbot and wouldn’t know a GPU from a garden hose.

In January, Consumer Reports profiled a man in Manassas who had lived in the same house for nearly forty years and opened an electricity bill for $281 — roughly triple what he’d paid the month before. He is not a heavy user. He did not buy […]

By |May 29th, 2026|2026, Uncategorized|8 Comments
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The Permission Slip

A while back I asked in this space what would happen if Dario Amodei was wrong. I want to come back to that, because I think the question matters more now than it did then, and for a reason that has nothing to do with whether I like Dario or his company. I do, for the record. That’s not the point.

The point is a document. In Machines of Loving Grace, Amodei made the case that scaling compute would eventually solve essentially every hard problem in artificial intelligence. Buried in that optimism — or maybe not buried, maybe right out in the open — was a quiet absolution. Hallucinations, the embarrassing tendency of these systems to state […]

By |May 28th, 2026|2026|4 Comments
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Where the heck have I been all this time?

I owe you all an explanation of where I have been. The story starts in 2022 when ChatGPT came out and everyone decided to get rich. I know I did. So, I bullied my dear friend – a legendary lawyer – into building a legal writing tool. Within a week we knew our mission was close to impossible because of failures in GenAI.  There were imperfect products we could have sold but didn’t – dooming ourselves instead to a three-year product cycle to defeat the nightmare called LLM hallucinations.

I was the chief architect, in over my head despite starting at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab back in 1978. Then last July I had a heart attack and a stroke followed by 10 weeks in […]

By |May 27th, 2026|2026|16 Comments
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