In January, 2007, just days before announcing the iPhone, Apple Computer dropped the word “computer” from its name. Pundits noted the passage though it didn’t seem like much at the time. But we were wrong. Apple had consciously and very deliberately entered a whole new era without our even noticing. It was a change toward phones and content distribution and away from computers. We couldn’t know it at the time but Apple was also forsaking the professional customers who had kept it alive in the company’s darkest days — those desktop publishers, artists, musicians, and moviemakers. Apple was no longer their company.
Mac sales today represent just under 24 percent of Apple revenue with 40 percent coming from the iPhone alone. Apple is a phone company that makes computers. It is also the largest music retailer in America and one of the largest video retailers. The implications of these changes are being felt throughout the company.
We will probably never again see a Mac Pro computer release on the Apple home page. In fact I expect this current Mac Pro form factor to be the last tower they make…… ever. The lineup will be iMac, Macbook Pro, Macbook, and Mac Mini. Firewire will die when USB 3.0 arrives, though I’d much prefer Apple embrace eSATA, but probably not.
USB 3.0 is a big deal for Apple because if you are going to embrace generic hardware that hardware had darned well better keep up with the competition. So the next generation of Macs will come with USB 3.0, from the top of the line to bottom. Apple simply can’t allow their competitors any significant lead in USB 3.0 deployment. Customers complaining that their daughter’s Dell has USB 3.0 and their MacBook Pro does not won’t be allowed to happen.
As for software in this emerging era, Final Cut Studio will run just fine on a quad iMac — well, most of it at any rate. Apple can work out the kinks once they decide how much they want to advance forward with the next version. What I wonder is whether that version will be more — or less — capable than the current? Remember how they’ve dumbed down iMovie? Expect more of the same.
For video users, Apple’s Intermediate Codec will go away in favor of editing AVCHD movies natively like iPhone 4 does already. Log and transfer will come with the choice of using ProRes transcoding or not in the next version of Final Cut Studio. Customers — the great unwashed masses of consumer and prosumer customers, not Hollywood — are tired of not being able to just plug in their camera, drag over their clips and go to work. iMovie will go AVCHD-native, too.
Apple is trying to push Final Cut Pro into a more consumer space. That’s clear from the video clip of Steve Jobs, above. Apple has been dropping their pro apps prices for a while and now we know why. Getting more and more individual users instead of enterprise users (organizations) is the goal. So as long as the Pro Apps can somehow mold to Jobs’s romantic ideal of a consumer user base, they get to stay. Otherwise, who knows? He likes FCP users as individuals but appears to no longer have any interest in production houses or TV stations.
They just aren’t his bag.
It is about empowering the individual human beings! Having everyone have the power of the what was once available to the selective few will only push the progress. As a professional web/database developer I for one welcome the transformation. I can’t wait when my job is obsolete.
Though Apple does indeed want to make their software to individual consumers, it means that they have to water down the power behind the software. That’s really the only way to make it cheaper; Apple can’t afford to put so much work into something if so few people are buying it OR if they will be selling it for mondo-cheap. Either way, it has to go down in quality. Hopefully, they will still maintain some pro-version of each of these programs, so that those talented Hollywood individuals (along with my friends in the AP), to do their high quality work with speed, power and luxury. Just don’t think that I’m against the consumer getting to share in that experience, I want it too! Ciao
eSata doesn’t provide power to a device. Any external HD that uses eSata requires another power source. Wether it’s a wall plug or USB. But I’m curious to why you think it’s a better connection choice.
I agree that Apple maybe trying to bring their pro video editing tools down a notch for more prosumers. And I think that is just Apple looking ahead at who is actually editing and producing the most of amount video today. It’s not Hollywood. It’s us. I’m sure there are some studies that would show that there are more hours of home grown, self produced content uploaded to YouTube in month compared to all that Hollywood does in a year. Apple is preparing their pro apps for all the future semi pro editors out there.
But I think Final Cut Studio will stay high end. Final Cut Express however might can an iMovie Pro make over.
Apple isn’t abandoning their creative customers they are just realizing that those who actually use these products on a regular basis are becoming a smaller and smaller market.
There’s also something to be said that for even some pros, video editors have become overly complex in the last decade and haven’t really made their jobs and more efficient.
Good subject Mr. Cringely.
eSata is a better choice than USB 3.0 not because of speed, but because of the path the data has to travel. USB requires an intermediate driver to make it appear to be a SATA device while eSATA of course does not (eSATA is more of a connector specification variant of SATA than a communication protocol like USB 3.0 vs. 2.0). USB 3.0 will be great, but we haven’t even begun to see the full potential of SATA/eSATA. with 6Gbps eSATA coming out at the same time as USB 3.0, we’re going to start to see some amazing, innovative storage systems. The hybrid hard drives are already starting to make a comeback.
Bob, I don’t think Steve was referring to creative pros in that video. I believe Steve was using “enterprise” in reference to the cubicle farms where most of Dell, HP, and Gateway computers wind up.
I’d agree with that way of looking at it too – especially where he says that the people who make the buying the decisions in the enterprise market are sometimes “confused” – implying they’re not making rational decisions – surely he’s not implying that they’re making bad decisions buying Apple products? He’s saying that they’re making a bad decision buying PCs – and by implication if the users were able to make their own decision they would all buy Macs.
Exactly my thoughts too. Whenever Jobs has talked about enterprise in the past it has been about Macs vs. Windows on the OS not the apps.
The Pro apps are a different beast when it comes to Macs. Creative pros are still going to prefer FCP and other Apple Pro Apps. I don’t see Apple dumbing them down. Although I do see them dumbing down the Express versions of these apps as they already have with the later versions.
Bob,
I haven’t seen much progress with your Startup Tour lately. Is it still on schedule?
prob. doesn’t bring the traffic like these non-stories.
Do you think future Apple hardware will come with both USB 3.0 and Light Peak? I’d gotten the impression that Light Peak was the direction they were headed:
https://www.engadget.com/2009/09/26/exclusive-apple-dictated-light-peak-creation-to-intel-could-be/
Given Apple’s track record of dropping connectivity options for what they consider to be superior alternatives before peripherals using the older technology are otherwise obsolete, although this would be an extreme example given how few USB 3.0 devices have even been released yet skipping the next USB doesn’t seem out of the question.
Bob you’re wrong.
Apple sells 90% of computers above 1,000 US $ and they sell the best high end consumer computers in the world.
As for USB 3.0 what is with technology Apple developed with Intel wasn’t it named LightPath ?
The real truth is that Jobs saw that computing was moving from desktops to mobile same as it moved in 80’s from mainframes to desktops.
Big picture is computing is in process of transformation from desktops to mobile devices.
For any corporation rule is follow the money and money today and tomorrow will be in mobile devices – that’s all.
Apple will be in consumer desktop computing as long as money is still there.
Citation needed on “90% of the computers over $1000.” Even if every OSX system was over $1000, with 10.9% market share, that means that 12.22% of all computers are over $1000, and just 1.5% of all non-mac systems make that bracket. I find these numbers highly questionable.
Whether they’re the best high end consumer computers is obviously up for debate; I wouldn’t pay $1,000 on a computer I couldn’t play the newest games on with near-max graphics settings. (I could do this with a $900 PC in 2003, and prices have fallen for the equivalent amount of power.)
Citation to you buddy – read this:
Apple has 91% of market for $1,000+ PCs, says NPD
link is here
https://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Apple-has-91-of-market-for-1000-PCs-says-NPD/1248313624
also here
Nine out of 10 computers sold over $1,000 in the U.S. are Macs
link is here
https://www.loopinsight.com/2010/02/01/nine-out-of-10-computers-sold-over-1000-are-macs/
If you want more proof just type apple sells 90% computers over 1,000 $
in google search box
and this has been going on for several years.
Which means they may be heavily marketed and over priced.
By definition, if people are buying it, it is not over priced. If you have 90% of the segment, there is a good chance that it is underpriced. Pricing is determined by market forces, not by random whims of people on blogs.
The mac is not dead, but it is changing. Some will not like the change, and Steve does not care about those people.
Final Cut Studio by the way it just software that does stuff. Making that software more consumer friendly does not automatically mean it will result in less value to a professional user. Also will the changes be in the NEXT version or the one after that?
Pay very close attention to price point, its how marketing types telegraph their intentions for their target demographics. Years ago at Apple, software that had two consecutive price drops was software that was headed for END OF LIFE. I don’t think thats the case here, but somethings a-foot, thats for sure.
In the same D8 interview Steve said that editing video on a tablet device was just a matter of time. Take him at his world.
Perhaps a Mac version of the app store….???
I’m not 100% sure how Apple will be moving and neither does Apple at this point. The MacPro tower may be going to the product graveyard, but the Mac Mini will be taking its place. The latest Mac Mini is now looking more and more like the typical high powered Apple Desktop and not something thrown together from the leftover pieces in the parts bin. Of course, the price is reflecting this too: Originally sold for a mere $499 is now selling for $699.
Apple has been having lots of luck in the past decade. Steve Jobs did some wonderful things when he took over Apple: He stopped trying to compete against Dell and HP and stopped wasting time and effort in the enterprise market. He cut production from 14 different desktop systems to just two. He produced machines people were actually willing to pay more for.
But, there was a lot of luck involved. Jobs came back to Apple just in time when applications no longer mattered and the Internet was big. In 2001, the only applications that really mattered were Quicken and Microsoft Office. Jobs begged and pleaded to both Intuit and Microsoft to keep those packages alive. However, most other things were moving to the Internet, and as long as Macs had good Internet client software (Mail.app and Safari), the Mac was a viable machine. Now, Microsoft Office is no longer the end all, be all package it once was, and who uses Quicken anymore?
Apple has also learned to quickly backtrack and move when it needs to. When it first left off Firewire on the Macbook, it quickly added it back on. When iMovie was rewritten to make it “simpler” and the customers balked, Apple quickly released a new version with all the old features. When Jobs declared that there was no need for Apps for the iPhone, he quickly relented. When the Mac Cube failed, it was quietly removed. If Flash somehow, due to Android, makes a web comeback, Apple will change its mind on Flash too.
However, one of the geniuses of Jobs is his realization where trends are heading and to move in that direction. While Microsoft is still working on phones, Apple has moved into the tablet computer market — a market that Microsoft somehow imagined they actually owned.
I suspect that the tower Mac Pro and even the iMac will die because Apple doesn’t cut prices as much as introduce new products to replace the old ones. Cutting prices is so Walmart. Instead, a bigger “iPad Pro” will probably replace the iMac while the Mac Mini and the MacBooks will become the “Pro” machine. That’ll allow Apple to “cut” the price of the Mac Pro tower by $1000 or more without looking like it’s a fire sale.
My prediction in Apple’s future: Expect the iOS and Mac OS X to start to merge. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if iOS moves to desktop systems completely replacing Mac OS X. (Don’t fret. iOS will get a file browser, and more desktop features before that happens. Apple does incremental upgrades and not entire rewrites. Remember that until a year ago, there was no cut and paste for the iPhone OS.)
By the way, FaceTime is very interesting. It works over the Internet and not the cellular voice channels. John Gruber of Daring Fireball noticed that an iPod Touch with an updated camera could also use FaceTime and that Steve Jobs announced that millions of devices (not phones) will soon be using FaceTime. However, John forgot that all the MacBooks and iMacs already have built-in webcams, and also use WiFi. Expect FaceTime for the Mac.
See, already Mac OS X and iOS are already merging.
I think it’ll be a tricky move (and ultimately a mistake) if Apple drops the Mac Pro line entirely. I’m a professional music content creator (read: music producer/composer) and many, many people in my trade need the flexibility that a Mac Pro offers over an iMac. We have huge sample libraries that need as much bandwidth as possible, and TDM users are all still using standard PCI cards in their Mac Pros. If Apple stops making those machines, they really will lose some of that market to PCs.
I left Avid and Pro Tools behind for Logic a few years ago now, and it’s true that some others have done the same, but if Apple pulls out entirely from this market, people will switch back. Windows is (surprisingly) getting more stable under certain parameters, and for professional music/media production, it will be the Application that determines the users’ OS, not the other way around.
Apple’s recent updates to Logic Pro Studio (more than at any other time since Apple bought Emagic) hopefully shows their continued interest in pushing Logic and the other Pro Apps forward.
I have a hard time accepting the idea that Apple would kill the Mac Pro or do too much else to tick off one of their core markets. It’s not as if they are losing money in the category. Plus, I’d imagine many users of Xcode are using it on Mac Pros.
I still want Apple to make a headless minitower between the Mini and the Pro. A beautiful case with room for a 3.5″ hard drive, an upgradable video card, maybe one open slot, one CPU (of however many cores), two RAM slots, plus ports. Serves as Airport router and Time Capsule backup for your iDevices. Make it “green” by promising motherboard upgrades for five years. Sell it as an upgrade from the Mini and the least expensive Pro to developers, switchers, and even (gasp) the enterprise.
@Mark:
— it will be the Application that determines the users’ OS, not the other way around.
If you’re old enough, or well enough read, you’ll know that it was Lotus 1-2-3 which made people choose PC/DOS (from among 3 OS’s on offer from IBM; extra credit for naming the two others, without Google or WikiPedia), and thus Billy got even richer. While the drone today is “content, content, content”, content is just an application. Which is why the DoJ is becoming more interested in Apple’s behaviour these days; there’s reason to not want a repeat of M$ circa 1990.
I think you’re right about Mac towers not gracing the splash pic on Apple’s home page again. When you get right down to it, there’s not a whole lot that’s sexy about a new computer SKU. “Guess what, folks… we put a faster CPU in it, a larger hard drive, an upgraded video card, and some whizzy new ports on the back!” Yawn… same old song and dance we’ve seen computer companies do for DECADES. Apple kept it interesting by wrapping sexy new case designs around all of these stock parts, but even for Apple, that game is getting old.
There’s a real excitement about what Apple and Google are doing in the mobile space, because it’s a wild west frontier again, just like the PC market was in the 80’s, and anything is possible. This is so much more than simply faster processors and bigger hard drives. Consumers anxiously await to see what revolutionary new feature will debut on mobile devices that will change their lives.
I don’t think the Mac is going away, though. Mac sales are climbing, so it would be silly for Apple to abandon that space just yet. Given Apple’s renewed focus on mobile devices, I think it’s a safe bet that Apple will be looking at tighter integration between desktops and mobile. FaceTime will be built into OS X; that’s a given. The Mac may function as a print server for Apple’s mobile devices, solving the printing issue. There will probably be greater synchronization between the desktop and mobile. And who knows what else.
Aren’t you a little late with your “Mac is Dead” proclamation? Dan Lyons pretty much said the same thing on the Newsweek site a couple of weeks ago. Someone who would know, I imagine, is Steve Jobs himself, and he addressed this in one of his emails that was made public around that time. An email writer asked whether there was any truth to the Newsweek “obituary” of the Mac, to which Jobs responded in his typical terse manner:
“Completely wrong. Just wait.”
http://9to5mac.com/death_of_the_mac_untrue
Jobs made the analogy at the AllThingsDigital event of cars replacing trucks as people migrated from an agrarian lifestyle to an urban one. He said, in the same way tablet devices will replace pcs — BUT not completely. Just as trucks still exist, he noted, pcs will continue to exist. People will want big screens to do real work and big screens are not easily portable. The larger screen that stays in the office, just like the really big screen that stays in your family room, will have its place. Maybe it will have Minority Report-style gesture input but it will probably still have a physical keyboard as well. Jobs has said that he recognizes that for, say, writing-intensive work a physical keyboard is still best; it’s just that for a lot of typical input (quick Google searches, say) the mobile advantages of a touch screen make them sufficient for a lot of computer tasks.
Jobs is merely ascertaining market segments and meeting them before his competitor does. If you make marmalade, and you are a market leader, well, you better make every variety of marmalade before some marmalade start-up comes up with a marmalade flavor that you don’t make and gets some marmalade mindshare.
There obviously was a market for tablets, for that type of interface (without a stylus to also hunt for), for that type of room-to-room portability and instant access, but as for how big the segment is, what the natural pc/tablet segment breakdown will be ultimately — I don’t think even Jobs knows, but neither is he going to relinquish any bit of the pc market as long as it still exists.
Ford makes a lot more profit on an F-150 than a Focus. At one point a few years back, I read that the factory that made the Ford Expedition was the most profitable factory it the world.
This “mac is dead” nonsense is growing more than a little tiring — it is idiotic in both the iPad is king form and this HW is dead form.
What Apple has figured out is that IT wins by having
(a) one OS with
(b) two UIs.
One OS means Apple’s life is easier. Improvements to Mac immediately improve iPhone, and vice versa. Two UIs means that apps are optimized for the form factor of the hardware. Small hardware demands a single “window”, and on-screen keyboard — but these are COMPROMISES for god’s sake, they are not imagined to be better than a multi-window 27″ screen with a real keyboard.
If you think this is obvious, compare with MS’ strategy which was to have two OSs and one UI — and to thereby create something that was desirable to neither developer nor user.
Fortunately for us, Apple is not populated by people as stupid as pundits. The FIRST DAMN THING people did with PCs the instant the hardware capacities existed, was to instantiate some sort of multi-window and multi-tasking UI — whether it was Windows in the DOS world, or Multifinder in the Mac world. Right now Apple is doing a delicate balance of trying to bring that functionality to small form factors in a way that is usable. Why in gods name, WHY, would they drop this functionality from the Mac line? WTF is asking for this? Find me a SINGLE PERSON on the face of the planet who is asking that the Mac line be replaced by 27″ iPads with their single window UI.
The entire history of iOS is of bringing the OS to feature parity with OS X. version 3 was trying to reach parity with 10.5; 4 with 10.6 — that’s why it has features like GCD and blocks in it. More 10.6 stuff like OpenCL and garbage collection is just a matter of time. Meanwhile, just like Apple made the iOS 4 dock analogy more visibly like that of OS X, we’ll see iOS UI features move to OS X — we’ve seen some of this already with some touch features moving on. We’ll doubtless see more it — iOS is a “blacker” OS than OS X, and we may, for example, see a larger use of black in Aqua going forward.
But the essentials are that OS X is a fine way for users to get a lot of work done on a large screen with an HW keyboard. It’s going to be replaced with something that allows users to be even more productive, not something that takes them back to 1978!
The bottom line is that
(a) computers are cheap THEREFORE
(b) the sensible thing is for individuals to possess multiple computers — an iPod nano and an iPhone and an iPad and a MacBook Air and a 27″ iMac — all optimized for different form factors — each running optimal hardware and optimal software APPROPRIATE TO THEIR TASKS.
As for Apple killing pro HW WHY? The boxes are not that hard to design — none of the ghastly complexity that goes into laptops or iPhone. The HW features they offer (larger address space and more CPUs) offer a proving ground today for the mid-range HW of tomorrow, and allow the OS and future SW ideas to be tested against it. Apple themselves surely want the fastest development platforms around.
What the hell are all you people thinking? You spin out these insane ideas, admit that you and everyone else in the world hate them and that they make no financial sense, and yet present them to the rest of us anyway.
Suppose the Mac Pro is dropped. I think it’s unlikely, for some the reasons the commenters above have mentioned. I like the Mac Pro machines for my work. But it’s not really the Macs that I like, it’s OS X.
If I could get OS X shipped to me on any old Intel PC, then I’d be a happy consumer, even if they dropped the Mac Pro. Could Apple try to pull a Microsoft and become an OS distributor? And would it lead to enough market penetration to continue supporting it?
Will never happen — Apple make money selling hardware, the software makes people buy their (overpriced) hardware.
[…] I, Cringely » Blog Archive » Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One) – Cringely on technolo… […]
God I hope you’re wrong.
And I think you are – surely if they’re not loosing money on something and it holds the premium end of that market – why stop. I think the MacPro has been on the back burner with other products stealing some resources. Haven’t Intel been delaying their new highend chips too?
Surely its both Logic and Final Cut are reasons to even bother developing Grand Central – and then an even better place to showcase them.
I think the price drop on the new FCS was more cause it was only a peacemeal update, with a major update coming with FCS4 and adding some really market leading new features like Grand Central support throughout.
One things for sure – we’ll find out soon enough – if they don’t update the Mac Pros soon they really won’t be in the high end pro market anymore.
I agree Bob. Even the MOSSPUPPET believes OS X and the Mac computers are on their way out: http://mosspuppet.com/2010/06/10/sorry-tuaw-the-mac-is-dead/
Just today a disabled TechCrunch writer reports that he sent an email to Jobs writing that he has a harder time with touch devices and worries that he will be resigned to using “trucks” – jobs metaphor for the aging pc platform – as Apple supposedly moves away from it. Jobs response:
“We will keep making the best computers on the planet. We love it.”
A few years ago, perhaps in his PBS days Bob wrote an article on how to coexist with Microsoft. In it Bob suggested one not base their business plans on what Microsoft was or was not doing, but to take Microsoft out of the equation and do what was right for YOUR business. If this column proves to be true, then maybe that is exactly what Apple is doing. They have business plans that are not dependent on Microsoft, or maybe computers for that matter.
I hope Apple does not walk away from their computer business. I would like to see Apple put someone good in to run it give that division some more autonomy. Give them some freedom to grow the business and see what they can do. Lets face it there is still a lot of untapped potential in Mac OSX.
One of the great business problems is when a company becomes diversified and has a mix of products, some old and some new. It is hard to effectively manage everything and empower every division to get the best results they can. As a final testament to Apple I would like to see them find a solution to this age old problem and find a way for every line of business to flourish. Don’t walk away from a perfectly good business.
I agree with you observation.
Some how Samsung has been able to do just that. Their revenues equal one forth of Korea’s GNP. Maybe they need to study Samsung.
No, Apple is not a phone company that makes computers….Apple is now a “computing” company
Successful salesmen will use every trick they know to keep selling. And Jobs is one hell of a salesman.
What interview is the Jobs clip from? I’d like to watch the whole thing.
The only reason Apple makes hardware it to make sure its software ‘just works.’ As long as Apple makes software, they will make hardware. So the question really is… when will _MAC_OS_X be retired? My vision is that it won’t… but the Mac Mini XServe and Mac Pro Lines will morph into the Local Compute Server.
Does everyone refine their own oil for gasoline/diesel/petrol? no. Very few people do… most drive to the pump and pay as you go. that’s your car analogy… But what I really think is there will be more of a ‘consumer driver’ ‘professional driver’ (truck drivers, trucking firms, farms, etc) that need to have a local ‘store’ of fuel (big tanks, possibly links to refiners and potentially even a ‘virtual’ supply system in the distribution network).
phones and pads and pods are the cars, suvs, and motorbikes of the consumer analogy… few people will need to have a 500gal tank in their yard to pump away. they’ll get their fuel as they need, sometimes at a true service station, but often at the local 7/11 (CircleK/WinnDixie… whatever) where they get other stuff too.
The ‘big haulers’ can and will need local supply and gauranteed delivery.
Those people will have likely iPad ‘Pluses’ (a near term analogy…. an X terminal… in the ages… the console… as opposed to the ‘switches’ [anyone remember the light pattern for a Failed UniBus Address Register?;-), and they will connect to a rack of Mac Mini’s that have morphed into a stackable XServe (like a blade, but more like a ‘Brick’)
The Merging of Mac OS X and iOS will drive to Grand Central moving to a loosely coupled multi-processing systems (VAXclusters?)… connect them with Firewire 1600 or LightPath or USB 4.0…. SAN/NAS services… What did NextStep call it… ‘Distributed Objects’?
Look at the Time Capsule… Look at the Mac Mini. Seeing a stackable
Consumer and SOHO and workgroup computing built brick by brick.
I see my house with 3 or 4 ‘bricks’ serving up my home automation, home theater with a local media cabinent , file services, communications, and yes, even my local compiling and analytics (If I’m so inclined.).
slowly…Apple will make it compelling to sell you services from the cloud… communication and file services move out, then the media cabinet, eventually even the compilation and analytics…
Switching to yet another analogy… no one grows their own food anymore… Apple wants to be both the Krogers, Dole Foods, and the Archer Daniels Midlands…. and soon, when we don’t even want to cook…. the mcDonalds and the Ruth Cris steakhouses. (at which point we’ll have a small fridge and a microwave… (ipads/iphones) vs Vikings and SubZeros (Mac Pros).
Welcome to the inevitable.
Failed Unibus Address Register was just a location store for an address that timed out on a Vax 11/780 Unibus fetch…
There was no light pattern. However Unibus based PDP11’s trapped through memory address 4… and picked up a halt instruction and halted usually with 10 octal in the PC.
Bill
ex-DEC Field Service Grunt
[…] his posting, Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One), Bob Cringley has a different take on Steve’s comments when taken in context of other changes […]
[…] his posting, Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One), Bob Cringley has a different take on Steve’s comments when taken in context of other changes […]
[…] his posting, Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One), Bob Cringley has a different take on Steve’s comments when taken in context of other changes […]
[…] his posting, Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One), Bob Cringley has a different take on Steve’s comments when taken in context of other changes […]
[…] his posting, Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One), Bob Cringley has a different take on Steve’s comments when taken in context of other changes […]
[…] his posting, Apple Goes Semi-Pro (Part One), Bob Cringley has a different take on Steve’s comments when taken in context of other changes […]
Bob,
I remember you wrote a while back the speculation that Apple was going to include H.264 decoding hardware into every device they sold. Whatever happened to that?
Bob,
I sure hope Apple continues to make Mac Pro towers till Digidesign figures out what to do with all the Pro Tools HD Music studios.
“I remember you wrote a while back the speculation that Apple was going to include H.264 decoding hardware into every device they sold. Whatever happened to that?”
I’m sorry, but what is your point? What device does Apple sell that does not include h264 HW?
Every iPod, iPhone, iPad has it; likewise for Apple TV; and every mac, as far as I know, now has a graphics card with hardware h264 decode.
I assume you’re not upset on some ridiculous technicality, like Apple mice, or Apple power supplies, don’t have h264 decoding.
I don’t see the end to the Mac anytime soon.
24% of your business is a huge chunk to walk away from. Also, given the halo affect, Mac sales should continue to grow at a far faster rate than PC sales in general.
What I give Jobs the most credit for is creating a complex ecosystem of products that help drive sales for other products in the lineup.
That is the brilliance of Apple.
[…] Applepeels, écrit par David Sobotta, un ancien manager d’Apple. Le second est un article de Bob Cringley, un célèbre […]
“He likes FCP users as individuals but appears to no longer have any interest in production houses or TV stations. They just aren’t his bag.”
Then why is he still the single largest stockholder in Disney? Doesn’t he have some interest in ABC television stations, at least?
As long as Apple needs content for it’s devices, there will be a need for a platform to create it on, and I’m sure Apple would prefer that be one of their boxes. I predict within the following year, we see something from Apple to reinforce this idea. (cool, I made a prediction!)
“Apple’s Intermediate Codec will go away in favor of editing AVCHD movies natively like iPhone 4 does already.”
Uh. The iPhone 4 neither edits nor records AVCHD. It uses the .mp4 flavor of H264.
I too expect the intermediate Codec to disappear, because AVCHD eventually will too.
As more DSLRs are using H264 (.mp4) as a recording format, I think it is becoming obvious that AVCHD, which is a pain to compute while editing, is unnecessary.
And sure, Apple implemented USB 1 in the first iMac – after ignoring it for a bit. And then after they tied themselves to Firewire they took forever to get with USB 2. One of the frustrating things is Apple seems very slow in their willingness to adopt the prevailing input interfaces. HDMI for the mini – how long did that take? It’s like they’d rather make a pittance selling adaptors that half work than see the mini cannibalize AppleTV sales.
For Apple, it’s all about incremental changes. Dell will have USB 3 first. But who will have wireless USB first? Now – about Ultra Wide Band … by the way, does anyone else think that the FCC restriction on UWB range is a joke and collusion with the telecoms?
PS
I am not a crackpot
@PhilS: ASUS is already selling two USB laptops and at least a couple of desktop boards.
Wow, Bob, I think you are really off on this one.
Many of us saw the change you are talking about before now, but just because you are late doesn’t mean you have to go overboard.
1. Apple wants to be and is the most creative consumer tech company in the world. That is Steve’s motto (and the inverse of Pixar) and guiding force. This means computers, phones, tablets, TV’s one day, whatever consumer tech means. It evolves and so has Apple.
2. You are misunderstanding your own video clip. Apple does not plan on abandoning computers anymore than it is abandoning creatives. That video piece was Steve against business IT depts. not Steve against high end computing professionals, like scientists, creatives, movie and music folks. Apple hates IT departments as computer buyers, not professionals as computer users.
3. Do you really think buying up Logic and Shake and the years of building on Final Cut are just going to be thrown away with all of that money and high end equipment to sell? That is about as likely as Steve telling Lasseter and his Pixar folks to abandon computer animation and go back to making movies out of notepad flip-books.
4. The main problem with design is that when you go to minimalist, classic design … and you’re good … you reach a zenith. The Parthenon couldn’t really be improved upon, you had to wait for something totally new (ie cathedrals) to start a new evolutionary branch of architecture. The uni-body macbooks and Mac Pros are pretty much there. Any more change would be for the sake of change, not for the sake of making the design better. The High Renaissance was a peak and it eventually mutated into mannerism, a newer but lesser aesthetic. Apple doesn’t need to turn its classic designs into post-classic derivatives. To continute the analogy, Apple can keep cranking out Parthenons (Macs) even as it designs and creates new Cathedrals (iPhones). The Parthenons may not look noticeably different and maybe the Cathedrals get all the new press, but people still want to buy and use both.
5. Unlike a person above, I don’t see MacOS and iOS merging. Apple wants both to be vibrant and Steve wants the MacOS to take from the Windows and Unix markets, while the iOS takes from Palm, RIM, Windows mobile such as it is markets while creating its own. MacOS is about creation, iOS is about communication and consumption. iOS is Apple’s attempt to show millions of pc users that their os is really irrelevant for 90% of what they do and in 5 years they will wonder why they even need to connect their phone or pad to ANY computer.
At that point everyone is to use an iDevice for 90% of what they do and the remaining 10% will be on a computer. But that is for the consumer.
If cloud computing and web apps and Google’s plans end up being so successful and not take down global communication systems en masse, then the os will be even less important (as long as it is virus free) and it will come down to cool hardware. With Apple’s inhouse chip design in place, they will have an inside track on that as well.
In the professional ranks, you will have the RIM thumbing pc users who do what their IT dept. tell them and you have the iPhone apping Mac users who run their own creative firms and MS, Google and Apple will fight for the rest of the businesses. Apple will always need its high end computing to do that.
So don’t be too quick to sideline the Mac, Bob. It has a long way to go even if Jobs doesn’t seem to be very nostalgic about it.
My only question is: will Apple spin off anything ‘a la FileMaker or reorganize significantly or will it hold onto everything?
” A single thing is the way to go.” Too bad the only company to embrace that concept went out of business last year: http://www.oqo.com
I say good riddance, tower. I just replaced my G5 Dual monster with a Mini. I do intensive Photoshop work, and some 3D and prepress all day, everyday, and my little mini is more than equal to the task. I have no interest in keeping the tower for any reason except a vague nostalgia. The beast was chugging away to process the most basic Flash content, and as my harddrives filled up with hi-res image files, there were more and more hiccups. What occurred to me in reading your article was the announced shift years ago by Apple to Intel processors. We felt then a huge sense of loss, as if PowerPC was what made a Mac a Mac. We got over it real fast, didn’t we? And so we will again and again, as Apple will always do what it must. No getting around Moore’s. Thank goodness.
Crap Cringely Crap
Apple gave to Intel as an Engagement present Lightthingy Lightstream?
WHY cause INTEL will make it a Standard and all the others Firewire USB will fall to the dustbin of floppies in the sky. Its due late(?) next year. WHY use USB3.0 when you have a better thing coming soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And Apple needs PRO stuff to make its own stuff Autocad iPhones design anything
You really think Apple will have top end DELLS with Windows7 to do the designing on —
Then you have lost your marbles.
WHY is Autocad going to Macs – just for the weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’ve been watching the Mac revenue stream become less and less critical to Apple as iPods, iPhones and iPads have come on the scene and dominated the competition.
I’m wondering if it will reach a point where Apple will once again allow Mac clones, or will open up OS X to non-Apple, commodity hardware– even on a limited basis like NeXT did toward the end, with a list of supported motherboards, video cards, etc. There’s already a de facto OS X HCL, thanks to the Hackintosh crowd (I used it myself to build the machine on which this post is being written).
Jobs may publicly say that Microsoft is no longer the enemy, but I think deep down it still sticks in his craw that such an inelegant, piece of crap OS as Windows runs the world. Weaning Apple from Mac revenue could be the first phase of a long-term plan to circle back around for another assault on the OS market, on a somewhat more level playing field than last time. I wouldn’t call it likely, but as Apple becomes less and less reliant on the cash from Mac sales, it’s getting to be at least somewhat plausible.
I like this post. I would not be surprised if this is part of Jobs’ long range plans, at least subconsciously. OTOH – He may figure that his various iStuff platforms, plus cloud computing in general, will sink Windows anyway…
This is the kind of subject that confounds those who think they know Apple and show themselves to be fools. Is it the software or the hardware? Do they use software to sell the hardware? Relative to iPod/iPhone sales the desktop and laptops don’t account for majority of Apple’s revenue, but at about quarter of all revenue is still a lot to just give up. On its own Mac sales are up every year and every quarter, the pace is actually only increasing since more people are tired of Windows and willing to try Macs once they own iPod/iPhone. So are iPad/iP*s used to sell Macs? Or is it really iDevice/iOS can exist only because of Macs/OSX?
One thing I noticed the “Mac is dead” advocates never bother to prognosticate is how Jonathan Ives is going to keep creating killer designs strictly on an iPhone or iPad. You might say OSX will evolve onto a large *ultra pad* with 2 giant monitor hook ups, but that is still a *Mac* – the form factor and UI has always been changing and evolving. Call it whatever you want. It is still an Apple machine running Apple OS.
Apple, despite predicting the move to mobile, needs to make sure it has control or influence on how mobile software is being created. Thus it needs the Pro line and Pro software.
This is an example of some of the most bizarre crack-smoking induced madness I’ve ever read.
The Mac is more profitable and moving in larger numbers than ever. Why kill it?
Apple is making more money from content distribution and content consumption. Why kill off a very profitable business making the tools that create that content?
This entire analysis is just absurd. It doesn’t matter how big the phone sector becomes compared to the Mac Pro sector. The fact of the matter is that the Mac Pro is STILL PROFITABLE. Perhaps amongst the most profitable workstations in the business. You don’t kill and bury a brand that strong just because you’re doing well for the moment elsewhere.
The apparent lack of attention paid to the pro apps reflects nothing more than Apple moving on the strategic priority: securing the mobile space. That is the most critical for the long-term success of OS X. Because they did that, they have all sorts of additional revenues to throw into hardware and OS development.
But the point is that the pro apps and Mac Pros are still profitable.
Prediction: After Apple secures itself in the mobile and tablet market it turns its attention back to the desktop, bringing touch screen interfaces that will revolutionize music and video editing. And they’ll own the best content creation, content distribution, and content consumption devices.
It’s interesting how Google is also releasing software for people to edit YouTube videos: http://googlesystem.blogspot.com/2010/06/youtube-video-editor.html . I believe that the desktop towers are going to disappear like Sun Workstations disappeared in the past.
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