Podcast: Play in new window | Download
There is a funky dance going on right now between chip giants Intel and nVIDIA and I just want to cut through the crap and tell you that no matter what the companies are saying it is likely to end with nVIDIA being purchased by Intel. Both parties know it and the only thing that hasn’t been determined yet is the price, which is what all this posturing is about.
Intel this week cancelled Larrabee, its proposed graphics processing unit (GPU) that was intended to compete with both nVIDIA and ATi (now a part of AMD). The moment AMD bought ATi Intel had to decide whether to build or buy its own GPU to stay in contention. They decided to build, or at least said they had. It’s hard to say how viable Larrabee ever was but at some point it turned from a weapon against nVIDIA to a barrier to Intel buying nVIDIA. So Larrabee had to go, because without that chip Intel presents a much less imposing target for the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission which might oppose a merger on anti-trust grounds.
With Larrabee, Intel could be seen as crushing a major rival. Without Larrabee, Intel is just trying to enter a new market.
Intel wants nVIDIA not just for its GPU’s but also for its mobile chips. Mobile is a big part of the future of computing yet Intel in 2006 cancelled its business aimed at handset makers, writing-off $5 billion in the process. Remember that? Despite attempting to back-in to the market again with its upcoming Moorestown post-Atom low-power processors, what Intel would really like are nVidia’s superior Tegra AXP chips aimed at mobile phones and media players. Ironically nVIDIA didn’t even design the Tegra processors, which it bought a couple years ago with Portal Player.
Intel had to do something the minute AMD bought ATi. Now with Larrabee gone Intel has no real choice but to buy another company to remain in contention. The only such company available is nVIDIA.
Notice how Intel has been making a serious effort lately to settle the anti-trust cases pending against it, especially with AMD, to which Intel is paying $1.25 billion. Yet against nVIDIA, the legal action actually appears to be heating-up. Why would Intel hold an olive branch for all the others yet still oppose nVIDIA? Again it is to drive down the price of an eventual acquisition and Intel has nothing to fear from an nVIDIA legal case if its actual intention is to buy the company, retiring the lawsuit.
But the action is not all coming from Intel. Last month nVIDIA announced they were suspending development of chipsets for new Intel processors. Later we read that nVIDIA was going to release a chipset for Intel’s Lynnfield processors only to have Intel question the validity of nVIDIA’s license to the Intel’s Direct Media Iinterconnect (MDI) technology, which connects Lynnfield processors to the chipset. Both companies are talking tough and so far nVIDIA has not released a product that supports Intel’s Core i7 or Core i5 processors, yet without Larrabee Intel really needs that support no matter how much they fume. Meanwhile nVIDIA has its own Ion low-power System-on-Chip for portable Internet devices and, inspired by AMD/ATi’s Fusion forthcoming CPU/GPU hybrid, nVIDIA has been working on a similar chip of its own. Intel was, too, with Larrabee, but now that’s over.
Intel could effectively block the nVIDIA hybrid processor through the MDI licensing ploy, above, and doing just that would have worked to the advantage of both Intel and AMD while Larrabee was still viable. I suspect this may have been a big part of Intel’s reason for settling the AMD anti-trust suit. It may have been part of their argument to AMD, too, about why the smaller company ought to settle at this time, because doing so would remove an nVIDIA threat. The big question is whether Intel knew even then that Larrabee was doomed? If they did, then the real plan was for Intel to absorb the nVIDIA hybrid processor and make it its own, which they can effectively do now that AMD has promised not to testify against Intel under any circumstances as part of their legal settlement.
That would be Intel turning the tables yet again on AMD, which may have been suckered.
If this reads like a huge conspiracy theory that’s because it is.
But sometimes conspiracy theories are true.
There is a funky dance going on right now between chip giants Intel and nVIDIA and I just want to cut through the crap and tell you that no matter what the companies are saying it is likely to end with nVIDIA being purchased by Intel. Both parties know it and the only thing that hasn’t been determined yet is the price, which is what all this posturing is about.
Intel this week cancelled Larrabee, its proposed graphics processing unit (GPU) that was intended to compete with both nVIDIA and ATi (now a part of AMD). The moment AMD bought ATi Intel had to decide whether to build or buy its own GPU to stay in contention. They decided to build, or at least said they had. It’s hard to say how viable Larrabee ever was but at some point it turned from a weapon against nVIDIA to a barrier to Intel buying nVIDIA. So Larrabee had to go, because without that chip Intel presents a much less imposing target for the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission which might oppose a merger on anti-trust grounds.
With Larrabee, Intel could be seen as crushing a major rival. Without Larrabee, Intel is just trying to enter a new market.
Intel wants nVIDIA not just for its GPU’s but also for its mobile chips. Mobile is a big part of the future of computing yet Intel in 2006 cancelled its business aimed at handset makers, writing-off $5 billion in the process. Remember that? Despite attempting to back-in to the market again with its upcoming Moorestown post-Atom low-power processors, what Intel would really like are nVidia’s superior Tegra AXP chips aimed at mobile phones and media players. Ironically nVIDIA didn’t even design the Tegra processors, which it bought a couple years ago with Portal Player.
Intel had to do something the minute AMD bought ATi. Now with Larrabee gone Intel has no real choice but to buy another company to remain in contention. The only such company available is nVIDIA.
Notice how Intel has been making a serious effort lately to settle the anti-trust cases pending against it, especially with AMD, to which Intel is paying $1.25 billion. Yet against nVIDIA, the legal action actually appears to be heating-up. Why would Intel hold an olive branch for all the others yet still oppose nVIDIA? Again it is to drive down the price of an eventual acquisition and Intel has nothing to fear from an nVIDIA legal case if its actual intention is to buy the company, retiring the lawsuit.
But the action is not all coming from Intel. Last month nVIDIA announced they were suspending development of chipsets for new Intel processors. Later we read that nVIDIA was going to release a chipset for Intel’s Lynnfield processors only to have Intel question the validity of nVIDIA’s license to the Intel’s Direct Media Iinterconnect (MDI) technology, which connects Lynnfield processors to the chipset. Both companies are talking tough and so far nVIDIA has not released a product that supports Intel’s Core i7 or Core i5 processors, yet without Larrabee Intel really needs that support no matter how much they fume.
Meanwhile nVIDIA has its own Ion low-power System-on-Chip for portable Internet devices and, inspired by AMD/ATi’s Fusion forthcoming CPU/GPU hybrid, nVIDIA has been working on a similar chip of its own. Intel reportedly was, too, with Larrabee, but now that’s over.
Intel could effectively block the nVIDIA hybrid processor through the MDI licensing ploy, above, and doing just that would have worked to the advantage of both Intel and AMD while Larrabee was still viable. I suspect this may have been a big part of Intel’s reason for settling the AMD anti-trust suit. It may have been part of their argument to AMD, too, about why the smaller company ought to settle at this time, because doing so would remove an nVIDIA threat. The big question is whether Intel knew at the time that Larrabee was doomed? If they did, then the real plan was for Intel to absorb the nVIDIA hybrid processor and make it its own, which they can effectively do now that AMD has promised not to testify against Intel under any circumstances as part of their legal settlement.
That would be Intel turning the tables on AMD, which may have been suckered.
If this reads like a huge conspiracy theory that’s because it is.
But sometimes conspiracy theories are true.
Tags: AMD, Intel, nVIDIA
This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 8th, 2009 at 6:22 am and is filed under 2009. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Welcome to the biggest game of rock, paper, scissors in the world.
I don’t see a merger happening for a while yet. nVidia doesn’t really want to be bought, even if it really needs to be part of a larger company (see Yahoo! vs. Microsoft). If nVidia was interested in a merger, it would happen in a flash. Intel/nVidia would outclass DAAMIT in mainstream CPUs, and they would be fairly evenly matched in mobile and graphics. The chipset market would be tied to the CPU (and mobile) markets.
With nVidia refusing suitors, the situation is more complex. Intel wants the mobile tech, probably wants the graphics business, and can take or leave the nVidia-based chipset business. But they don’t really have anything to offer nVidia in exchange other than a buyout. So instead they play patent troll on the DMI technology. The question is: does nVidia see more value in a cross-licensing agreement with Intel, or is it ready to put up with years of Intel patent lawsuits as it tries to be the main player in the mobile space.
This is a tough call, if you buy into the “paradigm shift” that our host Robert proposed a couple of weeks ago where the mobile space is the new tech growth sector. The future value of nVidia’s mobile tech is probably higher than what they could get from Intel for it, except for the nuisance factor of Intel lawsuits. The only way nVidia will be able to lawsuit-proof itself from Intel will be a cross-licensing agreement swapping the DMI technology (and probably others – Larrabee?) for nVidias mobile technology. But that would pretty much eliminate the possibility of nVidia becoming the dominant player in the mobile space. nVidia might be better advised to license/sub-license tech from AMD rather than Intel, but what do they have to offer AMD in exchange?
I don’t think they’ll be able to buy nVidia. I don’t think any Semiconductor company will be able to buy nVidia unless they do it NOW NOW NOW. nVidia GPU seems to be passing everybody. Once there are enough coders with a clue on how to use the HORRIBLE GPU languages. Or there are better compilers, nVidia will be way ahead of the personal CPU processor game.
[...] I, Cringely » Blog Archive » Intel Will Buy nVIDIA – Cringely on … [...]
Looks like nVidia is well aware of their leverage –
http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2009/12/17/nvidia_on_intel_suit/
and I bet they aren’t willing to be bought right away.
What if Google bought Nvidia for a Netbook device running Chrome OS?
First off, Larrabee hasn’t been cancelled. It has just been delayed, and that’s OK. The reason Intel needs a graphics chip is that AMD has plans to move all the fp work to the on-die GPU in the future. Having a solid GPU tech will give them Tflops of power in their CPU’s and Intel won’t be able to compete unless they also have a solid GPU. But that is still a few years out from now, so Intel have a lot of time to improve/fix Larrabee. Meanwhile, Intel IGP’s are doing just fine. They run Aero just fine and old games too. And they’re cheap.
Are you kidding me? I get OMGIGP every time I use an Intel GMA chip.
Nvidia wont be purchased by intel… Intel is just pissed because GPU computing is going to hurt their sales by alot… they dont have a case and should just settle with nvidia… If Nvidia does get bought by Intel, all computer users everywhere are fucked forever. Intel likes to ramp up the cost of their products even though they arnt worth it.
WOW,I am happy to hear this news!
Hi, great article, and thanks for taking the time and effort. One point, I think your images are missing? Or is it my web browser?
It’s a difficult issue. I understand both sides of the argument because of how fairly you have presented them here. I look forward to your updates on the subject.
Intel will buy nVidia whatever it takes, if the shareholders allow it. It’s the only way forward for them. They need to be the top dog of the future of computing that is mobile/embedded and SOC-isized CPU/GPU/*brige processors that will drive modern computers of all sizes. They could build those themselves but they also wan’t 1) competition out of the way, 2) pedigree.
If there was a smaller company with nVidia-type tech on the market they’d go for that (Intel never bought big players before, they’re a 1000 ton gorilla but are a very conservative aquisitor) Intel’d be all over them. But there isn’t.
Intel will also buy a major FPGA company for the same reason (future mobile/embedded technologies will see CPU+FPGA chips as replacement for both microcontrollers and ASICs), but it may not be Altera or Xilinx, because Intel rarely buys big. Then again, Intel wants competition out of the way, and one of those two is likely to merge with Samsung in some foreseable future as Samsung wants badly to be Intels new archrival for the 2010s.
It’s a beggining of an interesting decade.
The first time that i tried overcloking over a year ago, my CPU got overheated and got fried..,*
Hey, very nice website. I actually came across this on Ask Jeeves, and I am happy I did. I will definately be returning here more often. Wish I could add to the post and bring a bit more to the table, but am just taking in as much info as I can at the moment.
Thank You
Houses for Sale in Drogheda
Hey, very nice website. I actually came across this on Google, and I am stoked I did. I will definately be revisiting here more often. Wish I could add to the conversation and bring a bit more to the table, but am just taking in as much info as I can at the moment.
Thank You
Property For Sale Ireland
WOW your blog is really good blogg . Can I have a link exchange with you? You create lonk back to my blog I’ll make link back to you.
I loved your writing, keep it up!
Collection of Diagrams on latest digital mobile phones – volume2 Nokia series Collection of Diagrams on latest digital mobile phones – volume2 Nokia series Collection of Diagrams on latest digital mobile phones – volume2 Nokia series collects majority popular Nokia series mobile phones. It integrates 3 key parts as colorful ….
Hey, I think your article is very informative. I found it via Bing. Will definitely come back soon
shares use a superb web site decent Gives thank you for the work to support people
We’re going to end up with a couple of companies owning the world.
I, for one, welcome our new Google Overloards!
I fully agree with author opinion.
Just acquired a Mythic for myself and will be getting one particular for my wife quickly! It has just the appropriate mix of capabilities. just short of the full smartphone. I’m preserving an eye on the Captivate for any possible long term phone..
.price ranges are way as well great when released. I’ve been in large tech for 20+ years and generally hack everything I personal to create it greater laptops, GPS, automobile navigation techniques, etc. and yes cell phones as well. Inside the few days I’ve owned the telephone I have currently set up Opera Mini, Bolt 2.1, freecaddie, Google Maps w/GPS functionality, deleted all locked useless apps soon after backing them up and entirely modified the menu system to my exact requirements with no all ineffective apps.
Wow, often great to determine other individuals in the hole world in my looking, I seriously appreciate the time it must have taken to place together this great blog. Cheers
This should be a great opportunity for nvidia to step their game up. Can’t wait to see what will come out of this, positives and negatives mainly.
You might want to see these dogs! They are really interesting! Follow this: Hilarious Dogs
Intel this week cancelled Larrabee, its proposed graphics processing unit (GPU) that was intended to compete with both nVIDIA and ATi (now a part of AMD). The moment AMD bought ATi Intel had to decide whether to build or buy its own GPU to stay in contention. They decided to build, or at least said they had. It’s hard to say how viable Larrabee ever was but at some point it turned from a weapon against nVIDIA to a barrier to Intel buying nVIDIA. So Larrabee had to go, because without that chip Intel presents a much less imposing target for the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission which might oppose a merger on anti-trust grounds.
With Larrabee, Intel could be seen as crushing a major rival. Without Larrabee, Intel is just trying to enter a new market.
Intel wants nVIDIA not just for its GPU’s but also for its mobile chips. Mobile is a big part of the future of computing yet Intel in 2006 cancelled its business aimed at handset makers, writing-off $5 billion in the process. Remember that? Despite attempting to back-in to the market again with its upcoming Moorestown post-Atom low-power processors, what Intel would really like are nVidia’s superior Tegra AXP chips aimed at mobile phones and media players. Ironically nVIDIA didn’t even design the Tegra processors, which it bought a couple years ago with Portal Player.
Intel had to do something the minute AMD bought ATi. Now with Larrabee gone Intel has no real choice but to buy another company to remain in contention. The only such company available is nVIDIA.
Notice how Intel has been making a serious effort lately to settle the anti-trust cases pending against it, especially with AMD, to which Intel is paying $1.25 billion. Yet against nVIDIA, the legal action actually appears to be heating-up. Why would Intel hold an olive branch for all the others yet still oppose nVIDIA? Again it is to drive down the price of an eventual acquisition and Intel has nothing to fear from an nVIDIA legal case if its actual intention is to buy the company, retiring the lawsuit.cheap VPS
But the action is not all coming from Intel. Last month nVIDIA announced they were suspending development of chipsets for new Intel processors. Later we read that nVIDIA was going to release a chipset for Intel’s Lynnfield processors only to have Intel question the validity of nVIDIA’s license to the Intel’s Direct Media Iinterconnect (MDI) technology, which connects Lynnfield processors to the chipset. Both companies are talking tough and so far nVIDIA has not released a product that supports Intel’s Core i7 or Core i5 processors, yet without Larrabee Intel really needs that support no matter how much they fume.
Tarkista luotto-raportti ennen kuin haet pikalainaaan – ei ainoastaan tarkistaa luotto-raportti näyttää, miten voit katsoa tulevaisuuteen lainanantajia, se antaa ilmi myös mahdollisuuden parantaa tietoja, jotka ovat väärässä ja tuottaa itsellesi parhaat mahdollisuudet on hyväksynyt .
Angel Nunziata
Cheers, superb post.
There are some very great sources here and thank you for being so kind to post them here. So we can read them and give our opinion on subject.
hi there, I uncovered some excellent articles you may well be liked to check out. Please stop by: Click here
hi there, I discovered some good articles you could possibly be liked to find out. Please go to: Click here
After building my most recent computer, using Intel and NVidia, I am definitely going back to AMD and ATI. What was I thinking?
Right now, the new 6 core AMDs are $300, whereas Intel is charging $1000!
After building my most recent computer, using Intel and NVidia, I am definitely going back to AMD and ATI. What was I thinking?
Women’s fashion, undeniably, is one of the biggest industries in the modern economy. Women’s laptop messenger bags make a style statement. From earthy to elegant, leather to leopard print, business-like to colorful, laptop bags for women are blends of beauty and function for protecting your computer.