DVD Is Dead
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
The DVD may have died this week.
Walmart is now selling Blu-Ray high-definition optical disk players for $68 in the U. S. Sure, plain old DVD players are cheaper still, but why would you buy one? Blu-Ray players can be used with your old DVD collection just fine and will line-double and up-shift your old disks a bit so they’ll look nice (but not as nice as 1080p Blu-Ray) on your new LCD or plasma TV. So unless the Blu-Ray can’t connect to your old TV for some reason, I can’t imagine why anyone would buy the old standard.
These things happen: Moore’s Law, remember? But in this case it feels to me like the transition is happening a little earlier than I expected it would. For that I blame the economy.
DVD sales have dropped 30 percent in the current recession, which was a big surprise to the major movie studios. They expected sales to go up because movies played at home (where the popcorn is cheaper and the butter is real) are supposed to be a bargain during a recession. In a sense it seemed a perfect time to introduce Blu-Ray and get people to upgrade their movie collections just as they had upgraded their VHS tape collections for DVDs a decade ago.
That VHS-to-DVD transition was the Golden Age of home video, when old flicks earned their weight in rhinestones all over again simply because people liked the prettier pictures and random access to slo-mo nude scenes offered by DVD. So everybody happily bought all their favorite movies all over again, home video revenue became bigger for the movie industry than box office revenue. And like all participants in an unsustainable economic bubble, the movie producers and backers told themselves it would go on forever.
It couldn’t last forever because eventually all the people who wanted to buy DVD’s of old movies had bought them and the industry could only bring out new movies at a certain rate — a rate that was nothing compared to that total library conversion. What was needed, they realized, was another VHS-to-DVD experience, though in this case to a high definition standard like Blu-Ray, or its competitor, HD-DVD.
Except it didn’t work out quite that way. Both Blue-Ray and HD-DVD were late. Like Betamax and VHS, they fought it out in the market, creating buyer confusion (and movie studio confusion too). By the time Sony and Blu-Ray had defeated Toshiba and HD-DVD the DVD business was in decline (movie-related game sales were, too) and there were signs of an impending recession, which brings us to today.
The movie studio fantasy was that we’d pay $20-$40 per Blu-Ray disk, but then Daddy was laid-off and that Blu-Ray copy of 8 Mile suddenly wasn’t THAT much better than the DVD version for half the price. Some people decided to wait while others gave up completely, leading to that $68 Blu-Ray player down at WalMart. Remember WalMart is the largest seller of DVD’s (and presumably Blu-Ray disks) in America and possibly the world. WalMart is such a Big Kahuna in the home video business that they can dictate prices pretty much to the rest of the market. I predict, therefore, that after Christmas Blu-Ray prices will crash to only marginally more than DVDs and maybe even the same.
This is — like short-selling your dream house – just an acceptance of reality by the major players. They missed their chance to make big money but are fairly confident we’ll all finally switch to Blu-Ray if the price difference isn’t very much.
Think about that. It means we’re going to buy all new disks yet again, Hollywood will return to normal, and again we’ll probably be happy about it.
Lucky us.
[...] I, Cringely » Blog Archive » DVD Is Dead – Cringely on technology [...]
Why would we all buy our movies again? Unless you owned something like Planet Earth on DVD that actually looks much better on blu-ray (or so I’m told), there is no point. Sure, at some point I’ll pick up a blu-ray player and then start buying blu-ray discs exclusively, but I see no remotely compelling reason to replace any of my DVDs.
What?! No podcast this week?
It’s not that I don’t like your blog-site, Bob, it’s just that I collect several podcasts to listen to during my 1:20 commute. Hope you get back to it after the holidays.
Happy New Year!
(another) Bob
Moore’s Law is a very interesting phenomena. Besides electronics, cars and many other industrially produced items fit some form.
Originally it meant the doubling of transistors every two years, more or less for the same price. But that translates to a halving of cost every two years for a unit of computing.
Other items like cars have fit as well but with the time frame being different, for example, cars may be 10 years or more. (to see how this has proceeded, note that the Model A Ford needed a total overhaul in 20,000 miles- and decent car today will last 200,000 miles)
Some items, however, like houses, do not fit Moore’s Law. The reasons are not clear except the cost of houses is not industrially based (not based on their cost to produce), its based on banks and realtors greed, and as such actually increases over time. This may be a good reason for industrial housing bought directly from and financed by the maker.
Sixty eight dollars for a blue-ray player may sound like a deal; however what kind of quality can you get for that price? I will eventually get one, but will opt for more quality and do my research before purchasing. Wal-mart also sold a microwave oven for 23 dollars a few years ago. Would you trust your health to such an appliance?
Moore’s law means that in a few years from now we’ll have hi-resolution 3D TV, finally. The Blu-Ray disks and the players can’t handle that amount of data. Why should I buy old stuff like that?
Well judging by shelf space and what I buy and see others buy here in Aussie, television series makes up a lot of DVD sales. That is non-hd content from the “long tail”, mostly not available or accessible online (legally) yet here. And not requiring blue-ray as it was probably shot straight onto non-HD video.
Is there evidence that people bought the same movies in video and then dvd, or is that just assumed by the volume of sales?
Most U.S. TV series that aren’t shot in HD are shot in 35mm or Super-16, both of which convert quite well to HD. That’s why we’ll still be watching Desi and Lucy a century from now.
I’ve seen the same Blue-Ray player at a Wal-Mart in North Port, FL for $50! DVD is VERY dead!
I think the golden age of VHS-DVD could also be explained by the shift in ownership – tapes were mostly rented, whereas the DVD business shifted primarily to sales.
You’re forgetting one thing, O Great Cringe! Blu-Ray discs cost a small fortune compared to DVDs, and the quality improvement is marginal on a flat screen under 5 or 6 feet. I upgraded my Niro surround system with an external blu-ray player and I own exactly one blu-ray disc I bought to see if it worked (it didn’t–I had to upgrade the firmware). How many cheapie Walmart folks are going to spend $68 so they can pay $40 for a movie? I don’t get it.
I don’t think DVD is any less dead than Blu-Ray, they are both dinosaurs compared to digital downloads. Inevitably something else will come along, perhaps a card that you swipe at Walmart to say “this card now has access to this movie/music/game/ebook” and then you get home and it is already in itunes/mobile phone/media playing set top box or even a legally purchased torrent if the media dinosaurs get with the times already. Something like an itunes gift card but more accessible.
I’m with Chris – Blu-Ray is a dinosaur. I know some of us are ahead of the curve, but digital downloads are so much better than getting something on disc. And don’t get me started on Blu-Ray’s DRM, slow startup, forced adverts/warnings, …
Thanks for reminding me why the blu-ray experience sucks, I hate advertising.
Can I rip the movie and watch it on my iphone? No.
I will happily stick with low-def netflix dvds & streaming which has doubled in quality in 3 years. 3D televisions are being released this year… where will the content come from? Creating yet another new media standard and new hardware and new discs would take way too long. Streamed or downloaded content in a flexible file format with programmable hardware is the future.
I was going to get a ps3 for blu-ray and netflix(must insert netflix disc every time, cannot search for movies), but I think I will pass.
I just wish I could play console games on computer hardware.
Samsung and LG are set to release 3D televisions this year, but where will the content come from? Sony says the ps3 will support 3d blu-ray, but will it support 3d games? what about espn 3d?
The easiest way to get this content quickly into homes would be via streaming but I am not sure that US household internet connections have the bandwidth necessary to stream 3d hd with surround sound. What about games? Can the ps3 & xbox be updated to support 3d games? My guess is that 3D will be the hook they use to get people to buy a new generation of consoles.
Downloaded streams would work for movies, but not sports.
I’m so far ahead of the curve that the road disappeared.
The truth is that until I get my own Holo Deck/Suite, Replicators and AI Asistant that I wont be buying anything newer then a good book. It’s true, I want a fully immersive and interactive environment where I can ride on the back of one of Anne McCaffery’s Dragons, Wear Iron Man’s Amour or Green Lantern’s Ring. Until then, I’ll stick with the mundane world of Books and dream about the possibilities.
That’s a very US-centric view … my collection of DVD’s (800+ and growing) isn’t about to be replaced by blu-ray because (a) that’s a huge investment and (b) about 20% of my DVD’s are not Region 1 – mostly DVD’s that were never released in the US. The bottom line here – I object to Hollywood telling me what I can and can not watch.
Why so many DVD’s? Simple, I figured out a long time ago that if I redirected the cost of a cable subscription to purchasing DVD’s that I actually wanted to watch I’d save money over paying for stuff on cable that I had no interest in watching.
It’s going to take a lot more than a cheap player to make Blu-ray a success
I just got a Samsung Blue-Ray player for Christmas and am quite happy with it. The HD is nice and the up conversion of my existing DVDs is an improvement, but the really cool feature of this box is the Netflix player. I now have a much larger list of choices to watch at any given time.
I also noticed that the Blu-Ray disc prices dropped substantially during the holidays. Good timing for me.
In all honesty i rather have a dvd over a blue ray. if it’s about cost. But over the two i rather watch my video from net flix stream.
[...] Cringely thinks so, anyway. [...]
Er, some of my favorite movies (e.g. Stealing Home, Leaving Normal) still haven’t yet become available on DVD, nevermind Blu-ray. I guess the cost of a disc run and distribution is a barrier for some of the less mainstream titles. I hope online movie rental/purchasing will solve this, so we can access every movie ever made, anywhere, on any device and at any time…
The $68 player was a loss leader, it it now sells for $98. Like others have said here the BluRay movies are too expensive, many movie studios are having to double pack BluRay disks with standard disks to try to get people to buy them. Had I seen the $68 BluRay player, I might have purchased it, but I bought the $44 Philips up-convert player instead.
I have been very satisfied with DVD quality and have no current intention of paying for a BluRay player which can’t currently handle DivX/Xvid material satisfactorily. The advent of respectable 3D will render the current crop of BluRay players and some flat panel TV’s (Those under < 120hz) obsolete in the short run and further out will render all current flat panel TV sets obsolete. I have no intention of climing on this particular horse at the present time.
I finally bought a Blu-Ray player at the end of the holiday season, even though I swore I never would. I came out on the losing end of the HD-DVD format war in 2007, but only after spending $100 on a black-friday HD-DVD player that did a beautiful job of upsampling my DVDs. I said to myself that I’d bought my last disk player. I would be getting all that content online instead.
So why did I buy a BluRay player? The Sony BDP-N460 can view no end of internet content. It works with Netflix, Amazon on-demand, YouTube, and several other providers. You could conceivably buy the player and enjoy it without ever putting a disk in it.
[...] [...]
great article. I add this blog on my bookmark.
I just wanted to thank you for writing this. It really made my day
Blu rays suck! Yea the picture looks better but the cost for the blu Ray movies are way to much money. When I can buy a movie for 10 to 20 dollars as to buyin a blu Ray for 30 or more especialy during this crappy depression I’ll go for the latter. An yea my buddy actually got that same blu Ray player from walmart and it broke a week later! This is the only reason why I even found this page. So yea unless your rich or your that picky about seein actors/actress blemishes on they’re face you’ll go with the blu Ray
I agree with your data and definitely will hungrily look onward for your subsequent messages. Simply expressing cheers won’t merely be adequate, for that outstanding quality inside your posting. I’ll instantly seize your feed to stay privy of all posts. Solid job and much achievement within your internet business endeavors! Cheerio!
My partner and I agree with your data and may thirstily look onward to the subsequent messages. Merely saying cheers will never merely end up being adequate, for the extraordinary lucidity within your writing. I am going to directly grab your rss feed to stay privy of any posts. Good job and much success with your internet business endeavors! Get money, get paid!
Yeah, I have had that problem, where I enjoy the post, but I have no experience with the subject, . So when I have time I try to think of something to say and when I don’t I move along wishing I did.
Hi Much thanks for a great article. Saved your URL and visit again shortly. bfn
keep posting stuff like this i like it
First deserve then desire.
Ohio, what a good bad plan to get fans. And I like it
where do you get downloadable movies online?.“
online movies are cool but i wish the quality were better..;-
can i see more of these?
i always download movies from rapidshare, bittorrent and sometimes on video sharing sites.*”"
i always watch online movies from Vimeo or Youtube, it is low resolution but most of the time sufficient.`*;
The Lost Arts Of War…
…an interestin post over at . . ….
Originally it meant the doubling of transistors every two years, more or less for the same price. But that translates to a halving of cost every two years for a unit of computing.
Other items like cars have fit as well but with the time frame being different, for example, cars may be 10 years or more. (to see how this has proceeded, note that the Model A Ford needed a total overhaul in 20,000 miles- and decent car today will last 200,000 miles)
cheap VPS
Some items, however, like houses, do not fit Moore’s Law. The reasons are not clear except the cost of houses is not industrially based (not based on their cost to produce), its based on banks and realtors greed, and as such actually increases over time. This may be a good reason for industrial housing bought directly from and financed by the maker.
Death is a shadow that always follows the body.