Energy Past, Energy Future

I used to write about the oil business. It was a diversion from high tech I took for a couple years in the early 1980s. I worked in Saudi Arabia, attended OPEC meetings in Geneva and Vienna, and hung with a variety of characters from the era of what we called the energy crisis. This column is not about that crisis per se, but rather about how that crisis and our current energy situation are so different and yet so alike. Very interesting things are happening in the energy market — things that have taken 30+ years to come about. The future of energy isn’t what most people — even heads of state — think it is.

It’s better.

First understand that the original energy crisis […]

AOL+Yahoo is a Jealousy Game

If you think AOL actually intends to buy Yahoo, you are wrong. That story hit the press this week but it’s a ruse to motivate Google exactly as I explained a few days ago. AOL has neither the money nor the motivation to buy Yahoo, which is analogous to a bus company buying a poorly-managed airline.  AOL just wants to make Google jealous.

Here’s what I think happened. This is pure speculation on my part, of course, but I know most of the players and am even correct from time to time. I think one or more private equity firms brought the deal to AOL: they’ll put up the capital if AOL’s Tim Armstrong […]

Show Me the Money

I want to make a small point here about this week’s Windows Phone 7 launch from Microsoft. Now you can take this with a grain of salt given that I was an iPhone user until I switched this summer to Blackberry for my Startup Tour. So I am not exactly unbiased. But is it just me or are you, too, having a hard time seeing the $400 million that Microsoft claims to be spending on this product launch?

Redmond spent $100 million launching Windows 95, a number that set something of a record for its time and stood for long as the standard amount to spend if big companies were trying to make a point based […]

Spies Like Us

Last week the Obama Administration announced that it would be shortly submitting legislation intended to force providers of all kinds of digital communication services (mail, voice, chat, Twitter, etc.) to install back doors in their services to allow government monitoring of all encrypted digital communication.  No explicit details were given of how this is going to work, nor has the actual legislation yet been introduced.  Hopefully it never will, because it simply won’t work.

It’s not that such technical back doors can’t be written (they can), nor is it even so onerous to force communication providers to change all their software since these services are rewritten often anyway.  The problem is that such back doors will […]

Crunch Time at AOL

TechCrunch, a company made up of tech blogs somewhat like this one as well as classified advertising and some events, announced its sale last week to the new-old AOL for a price widely, broadly, and deeply rumored to be $30 million. Nobody will officially confirm this price but I have no reason to believe $30 million is wrong. It is way too high, but it probably isn’t wrong. The better question is why would AOL pay TechCrunch four times what it is actually worth?

I think I know why.

Since I am not known as an equity analyst, you might wonder what makes me believe that TechCrunch is worth only a quarter of the rumored […]