2011 prediction #6: Yahoo barfs

This is a sad one.  Venerable Yahoo, the original web portal, is in such trouble that it doesn’t know what to do.  So Yahoo will this year begin tearing itself apart.

This will be presented as a semblance of a strategy but I doubt that’s true.  More likely it will be the company attempting to maintain or even increase earnings by selling its seed corn. So look for Yahoo to dispose of its huge assets in China, to sell the part that it owns of Yahoo Japan, and to spin-off photo-sharing site Flickr as a separate company.

It will make the stock look great… for awhile.

By |January 5th, 2011|2011|23 Comments

2011 prediction #5: Facebook forks

Facebook now claims more than 500 million members. Facebook is too big. Already we’re seeing Facebook defections by, well, me. And others, there are other people than me who are put-off by the simple fact that this social network is becoming as ubiquitous as bad breath in dogs.

LinkedIn, at only 80 million members, is already having success with its branding as the working professional’s Facebook. Well the real Facebook can’t allow that, can they?

So expect this year a Facebook fork with the social network offering premium services to get back all those high earners over at LinkedIn. We may see several Facebook channels in fact. How else can Zuckerberg appeal to those of us who, like Groucho Marx, “refuse to join any club that […]

By |January 4th, 2011|2011|28 Comments

2011 Prediction #2: The white iPhone IS the Verizon iPhone

No other explanation makes any sense.

Certainly there is no supply problem that could keep Apple from introducing a white iPhone.  But what if white is a Verizon exclusive in the USA?  That would to a certain extent pull the branding rug out from under AT&T and even put a bit more oomph behind those iPhone users who might choose to jump carriers.

It’s silly, I know, but as Mrs. Cringely always says, “Husbands die every day.”

By |January 4th, 2011|2011|49 Comments

2011 predictions: One word — bufferbloat. Or is that two words?

As promised, here are my technology predictions for 2011. These columns usually begin with a review of my predictions from the previous year because it annoys me that writers make predictions without consequences. If we are going to claim expertise then our feet should be held to the fire. But last January I didn’t write a predictions column, thinking we were past all that (silly me) so there is nothing with which to embarrass myself here. More sobering still, after last year’s holiday firestorm over our naked card Mrs. Cringely won’t let me post this year’s card. We have become so dull.

We also seem to have become verbose, because my first prediction (below) took 1400 words to write. So tell you what: […]

By |January 4th, 2011|2011|73 Comments

Predicting the Future

Readers have been writing to me lately about my annual predictions column, a vestige of my days at PBS.  While I’m reluctant to do it, that annual exercise is apparently very popular.  And the quality of reader comments lately suggests we could get quite a good discussion going.  So I’m going to do it.  But, just like Dora the Explorer says, I need your help.  If you have any predictions to share for 2011, please send them to me by e-mail (bob@cringely.com) and I’ll include the better ones in that column, giving credit where credit is due so we can both take the heat when we’re wrong.

Remember it’s important to not only predict what will happen but why.  Understanding is our goal here and […]

By |December 14th, 2010|2010|29 Comments