Prediction 8: No more predictions
When I started this gig in September, 1987 Ronald Reagan was President, there was no commercial Internet, Oprah had been on the air for less than a year, and a fairly powerful PC was an IBM PC AT running at 8 MHz. In September that will have been 25 years and I think 25 years is probably enough.
That’s 1300 consecutive weeks without a break. Honest to God, I haven’t missed a week since 1987. How many people can say that? With more than two million words in print, most of them still available online, it’s like having a time card the entire world can check. No cheating allowed.
I’m not saying exactly when the end will come, just that it will be this year sometime after September. And I have plenty to do between now and then including a couple TV projects, books, a surprise or two, as well as at least a couple hundred more columns.
Nor will I disappear completely even then. But I’d like to make some changes in my life, like build a boat with my kids and maybe walk the Earth.
Besides, it’s better to quit while you’re ahead, if only barely.
OMG.
Now I am going to have to get a life and learn to think on my own.
I hope your retirement is long, pleasant, and rewarding.
Hi Bob
A lot of people are going to miss you, myself included.
But I hope you enjoy the next chapter of your life.
I hope that we’ll still hear from you from time to time – I’m clinging on to your line “Nor will I disappear completely even then”!
Well I hate to contemplate your stepping away from this gig.
I think it will be incumbent upon you to recommend another techno pundit, or several of them.
I’m not a real techy. I’m more collateral. But I need to avoid missing out on trends. So I generally attach to one top notch pundit in a field to reliably keep me abreast, who is also generally confident enough to think about the topic outside the box. I think of them as “sage pundits”.
You have of course done that brilliantly. In economics I rely on Paul Krugman’s blogs, yes, he’s a liberal (also called ‘salt water econonomist’), and in economics, so am I, but he does a fair job of addressing and explaining the other side’s construction so I know what’s going on. For politics I go to talkingpointsmemo – again its liberal but has similar qualities as to Krugman. I appologize if you don’t like being compared with the likes of those guys, but your departure will mean that I need to find a new technology pundit to keep me apprised of events, their impact, and so on.
By the way, in this regard, the predictions are valuable. I learn a little bit about the underlying dynamics from the construction of them, and I learn a little more when things don’t go exactly as predicted. Very valuable stuff from an education perspective. Once in a while, I might click on a link by the sage pundits I follow, but usually I don’t have the time. But at the very least I have to consistently check in with the sage pundit, at least weekly, to be kept abreast.
So, I think it only fair, that before you go, you provide recommendations for a new sage pundit in the sphere of punditry.
kindest regards and best fun for the future.
Jesus, I have no idea who to recommend! If I was smart I’d go the Dread Pirate Roberts route and find a successor. But I’m not that smart.
A lot has changed since I started doing this. The IT industry has grown tremendously as has coverage of it. There are plenty of smart people out there.
Marge Fresnel, my old flight instructor, who had flown as a WAAF in WW-2, said finding an instructor with military experience is important. That analogy fits here if you look for a pundit who has actually worked in the industry, not just written about it. That’s where even Dvorak falters because for all his years and brain cells I think he’s still looking from the outside-in. Imagine how it must be, then, for a 20-something writing for CNet or, shudder, AOL.
Maybe I’ll do a column about this sometime, but one of the most obvious facts about the writing business is that pay hasn’t changed in decades — literally decades — while everything else has gone up in price. That means most writers are having to work a lot harder than they used to and when it comes to writing, harder hardly ever means smarter… and it shows. Between that and SEO, link exchanges, and paid content, a lot of crap gets written that shouldn’t and that’s a disservice to readers. I never look at the numbers because I might slip into that same trap, too. But as you’ve already figured out, I’m not very good at playing by the rules.
Pundits come and go, but I wouldn’t trust one who won’t admit mistakes.
I’ve been thinking about this all week. When I first started reading your stuff firms were shipping products that simply did not work as promised. I could probably write a 1000 word column on all the things that were wrong in that IBM PC AT. Some of those mistakes have been duplicated into the PC’s we use today. At the time reporters like you couldn’t get a straight answer from the vendors. Things were constantly changing, some technology would come and vanish in a few months. It was a chaotic time. You knew enough about the technology not to accept the PR answer and would keep digging for the truth. I can remember you getting in trouble a few times for finding the truth. I was grateful for your sacrifices. I took what I learned from you and did some more research. And then I would have a serious conversation with those same vendors. I saved my company $Millions in our early PC investments. Few remember how bad stuff was in the PC industry 15-25 years ago. It took a lot of bullying to get things fixed. You gave us the facts and baseball bat we needed to wage war against the hardware and software makers. Over time things got better, a lot better. You were an important catalyst in the industry. THANK YOU.
BTW, one of my favorites of your ideas was….
the idea that cities build FREE light (or ultra light) rail systems.
Charge NO fee for use, ie. make riding the rail free.
Instead fund the system by the increase in property taxes in the vicinity of the stations where the trains were boarded.
Free transportation would generate large numbers of users, who would have to pass through the stations to board, businesses near the stations would get excess foot traffic, that would raise the value of the property, and with it, taxes on that property, and that increase could pay for the system. Also a house or apartment closer to a station would be worth more than one far away, and so on.
I have no idea whether that idea could ever work, but I like the thinking.
How much more traffic would be generated by a free light rail system? How much energy would that save? How much fewer emissions would be generated? Would we be better neighbors to each other if we saw each other in the same rail car instead of sitting in another car in another lane? Think of all the walking people would do – and the affect upon health and obesity.
That’s the kind of out of the box thinking that I really enjoy. I’m an economic geography major, and I would never have thought of that.
I believe that was circa – 2000 to 2001.
One of the things that I respect about you the most is that you WILL admit your mistakes. Not only did it make for entertaining reading (mostly the prediction recaps) but it also made you more “human”.
I do hope that you keep this site somewhat active. A lot of us really enjoy your unique insights into this crazy industry.
Best of luck to you and yours!
I predict he will end his predictions this year but then start another prediction, next year!
Bob, be careful in your travels not to follow in the footsteps of James Kim. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Kim . And don’t think you can rely on your tech gadgets in an emergency. There are plenty of other sad stories demonstrating that all they provide is a false sense of security.
I *really* hope that prediction is wrong. I’ve only been reading you since ’97, and I still want more!
A couple hundred more columns? I see barely one a week. Most of them, I or anyone else could write in 20 minutes. The last 4 are all the same… take the top 5 companies and predict they switch CEOs or merge in various ways. That takes less imagination and effort than getting out of bed.
I don’t come here to diss Bob. But since the Infoworld days all he writes is filler, or stuff that’s meant to con the readers. The comments are much more insightful, and are what I come here to read. Good riddance, get another life. Sell shoes or make lattes somewhere. If you have even that much talent.
It’s more often than that but you are correct that I should have written “100 columns” not 200. As for the other stuff you say, well I’ll leave it for others to respond. You could be correct.
But I will tell you that I used to carry around in my wallet a message I received years ago from an irate reader who was convinced I was about the most stupid person who’d ever tried to write about technology.
“I eat guys like you for lunch,” he told me back in 1991. He was at the time a student at the University of Akron. For a decade or so until I finally lost that piece of paper I’d look him up every year or two to see where he’d gone. Last time I checked he was still in Akron.
Bob,
You can look me up every year and I’ll take you out to lunch.
Otherwise, I’ll miss your opinions, insights and occasional ramblings.
Given the logistical constraints I might instead be satisfied with an occasional post somewhere with “what crazy stuff I’d tell Phil if we had lunch.”
I consider you to be one of the few honest tech bloggers out there – probably because I’ve been reading and watching you before there was “blogging.” I’m not saying I agree with everything you write (what would be the point of reading your blog then) but I’ve always appreciated how much fun it’s been for me to read and think about what you’ve commented on, and how civil you, on your part, have tried to make this bit of the blogosphere.
Phil
Well, Joe, it was Cringely who convinced me to buy Apple stock in 2000, so I’ll take his filler over your comments.
I just wish he (or anyone) had stopped me from selling it in 2003. Sigh.
Anyway if you’re hunting for the most informed, least-trolly comments board of a tech blog, I recommend Asymco.com. The comments there are like a free education in mobile computing analysis.
WOW, I second that, except I still have my shares, I just wish I had put more money into the stock.
First time commenting.
Have been following your blog for the past 8 years. Have enjoyed every one of your articles. Hope you write once in a while though.
Wishing you and your family all the best for the future.
Vivek
“Say it ain’t so, Bob. Say it ain’t so.”
Like Tim K., I’d appreciate it if you could recommend a successor. Before I followed your blog, I was a faithful reader of Bob Metcalfe, so I’m afraid you’ll have to narrow your short list down to other people named Robert
Or if you change your mind about the Dread Pirate Roberts route, allow me to toss my hat in the ring. I have absolutely no contacts, but I’ve been working in tech since college in 1980.
You can take a break, you can do other things but you know better than anyone that YOU CAN NEVER LEAVE.
It won’t let you. It’s in your blood. You’ll do this in one way or another until you die, Bob, and you know that. Like Pacino’s character in The Godfather it’ll keep pulling you back in.
And when that happens, we’ll be waiting.
I assume there will be some documentory around the making of the boat? Hope you have better luck than you did with the plane.
English pop-musio Thomas Dolby put a nice solar powered boat together. He records in it now.
I’ll be sorry to see the end of I, Cringely, which I have enjoyed reading for many years. You obviously know a lot more than I do about the hi tech industry (and you can say it much more entertainingly, too!)
However, I can understand your decision to have plenty of time to do your boat building and designing right. Poor design of boats can lead to big problems. (Wasn’t there a movie about that, starring Kate Winslet that Leonardo guy? Steer clear of icebergs, that’s all I have to say…)
Brent
Even when you predictions are wrong, even when I disagree with your conclusions, you always make me look at things from a completely different perspective. You’re take on things will be sorely missed!
I’ve enjoyed your blog for years, and you will be missed.I don’t think that you will be far from the limelight, though, and it will be reassuring that you will be there somewhere in the background. Just promise me that you won’t try to build and sail a boat in a month, OK?
Actually, Bob never said he intends to sail it or even put it in the water. He said he would build a boat and perhaps walk the earth. Besides, who said anything about sailing? Could be a rowboat or a canoe. And he said that he may be posting columns until December 31st. Just sayin’.
I began teaching Computer Studies in 1986, using Apple IIes. I started reading I, Cringely columns a few years later. Those columns, both on the PBS site and the cringely.com site have added immensely to the teaching/learning experience I shared with thousands of kids. We were privileged to have Bob come and speak to my 8th graders on a few occasions. He later confided that, after speaking to business professionals and grad students, my middle schoolers scared the crap out of him! It’s OK, Bob, they always scared me, too. To Bob’s credit, he showed up for on of those speaking engagements…always gratis… on 9/11, leaving a pregnant wife at home.
Thanks so much for your contributions, and yes, for your sometimes bone-headed opinions over the years, Bob. And thanks for enriching my own technological and educational experiences.
This must mean it’s time for me to retire too!
First time I write a comment as well.
After reading your columns, clinging to them, for about 15 years. Started a company then (still up and running very well) in the crossroads between technology and culture. You provided us with orientation.
Will really miss reading you!
David
Fine! Get out of here! You won’t be missed!
(*sniff*)
This sucks.
So future blogs will be written by people who don’t remember what it was like to work on an IBM clone with 5 1/4″ floppy drives … or when upgrading from a green monochrome screen to one with amber phosphor was a big deal. So much for institutional knowledge!
I hope you’ll keep producing *something* for us to read, even if it’s not this blog.
Now, can you please get off my lawn?
Say it ain’t so. Roger Clemens?
Bob it has been a pleasure since ‘plane crazy’. Don’t go! Is it just me or does the Internet suck these days? This is one prediction I hope fails.
Bob: At first I was angry. What columnist will I assign my students now!? Then I was sad, because I have read you for so many years, shown your PBS series so many times to classes. First on VHS then on DVD. Next was denial. You probably won’t really leave, you’ll just reincarnate into some new format. The Cringely App for my iPad. But I accept that you deserve to retire. You earned it. Your family has earned it. Please come back and visit. I won’t delete the bookmark, just in case.
Bob, thanks for all the words, wise, insightful, and otherwise. Your book about Three Mile Island should be required reading for anyone involved in engineering, management, or disaster preparedness. With all your upcoming free time, any chance of a similar in-depth analysis of a recent or yet-to-have-occurred crisis?
I first heard about you when I caught “The Triumph of the Nerds” on PBS way back in the 90s when it first aired. I then discovered your column when I started working at an ISP as a support technician, and I’ve followed you ever since then. I, for one, will miss your columns on the IT industry, as you still follow the ENTIRE industry. Though John Gruber still considers you “insane” whenever you write something about Apple, he doesn’t know jack about anything else that helped build the industry into what it is today. I hope you enjoy your retirement, and I’ll keep checking in here until you’re done. Thank you.
Bob – My ex-CEO recommended you as one of the thought leaders in the industry about 7 or 8 years ago. I was new to IT and didn’t grasp most of what you said at that time, but never stopped reading you. As I began understanding how the gears turn, I would go back and re-read some of your columns. Many will miss you. Please drop an occasional post card to your readers. Thanks.
I guess the movie made you a lot of money to quit! Good luck!
First time comment.
Enjoy your time away from it all and “Thank You”, for sticking at it so long.
“So long and thanks for all the fish”
Liam
Yea, Bob! Congrats on your decision to go build a boat. After reading your work for decades, I can say that it will be good to hear your approach to boating.
Well deserved, and I hope to be joining you someday, before it is too, too late.
Ahhh ! I am getting chest pains at the mere thought!
Understandably, its the nature of things, the changing of the season but still, I would have a terrible time letting go. I always get a grin, a smile, or even a sagely insightful nod when I read your blog posts.
I especially enjoy the ah ha moments and a firm reminder of doing our best to step outside the box and try to look at issues the best we can – charging that windmill of objectivity. Never winning but at least trying : )
I also appreciate the pursuit of truths, yours, ours and theirs. Refusing the accept the well paid for and orchestrated party line that “they” so desperately want us to believe. The Agent Mulder – the truth is out there!
Thank you so much for all that you have done. If anything the lesson that I have learned from you is that one should always hold on to their wit and a good strong sense of humor.
Since your first column – following your predecessor at InfoWorld — I’ve valued and enjoyed your columns and documentaries. The times, they are a changing. My life has been enriched by your efforts. Thank you, sir.
I understand, but … but…
This is a bit like saying: “We’re doing away with keyboards. There are plenty of other ways to get info into a machine, most using those very same fingers.” etc
But the single, logical, most sensible solution is going away? Shock!
Ok. It’s understandable. Personally, I came late to the parenting lark and would like to spend more time with my kids before my gnarled old carcass gives out. Work gets in the way and if I could, er, work around it, I would.
Not sure if any of my reasoning applies, but you’ll be missed, Bob.
Wow.. I’ve been watching and reading your stuff since 1996 when I first saw Triumph of the Nerds on PBS and later found your Infoworld column. Still looking forward to watching all those NerdTV interviews that are in the can too.
So, do we ever get to find out what happened to you moon mission?