iPad, Therefore I Am
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
It’s the morning after and time for an unjaundiced look at Apple’s just-announced iPad tablet computer thingee. My last post was a series of pre-announcement Tweets from a guy at or near EnGadget and I took some grief from readers for even posting it, but in retrospect I am glad I did because it gives me a lot more to say about the new gizmo.
Were the tweets from a real beta tester? While many readers thought they weren’t, I’m pretty sure they were, primarily based on what many perceived as mistakes. Yes, the price points were off but those things can change hour-by-hour right up to the last minute and I wouldn’t put it past Apple to deliberately give bad pricing to testers to mislead and catch leaks. More importantly, the Twitterer said there would be three price points and there were. Based on the iPhone/iTouch intro model one would only have expected two price points.
Let’s look inside this price differential for a moment and try to channel our inner Steve Jobs. The Twitterer said $599, $699, and $799 while Apple announced $499, $599, and $699 without 3G and $629, $729, and $829 for the same models with 3G. But remember the Twitterer was strictly referring to 3G models, since he said they had 3G. He also mentioned both AT&T and Verizon Wireless, while Apple mentioned only AT&T.
Just because Apple didn’t mention Verizon doesn’t mean they won’t also offer 3G service from Verizon. The word “exclusive” was never used referring to AT&T. They trotted-out that pre-paid plan, but it would be crazy for carriers to not also offer a one-year or two-year subscription plan, too, which would drop the unit price somewhat. Maybe the subscription rates weren’t yet set. More likely the Verizon details were still in some limbo or Apple gave AT&T an exclusive presence at the intro in exchange for some concession we may never know about.
With Steve Jobs the deal isn’t done until it is done so I am sure he’s still trying to take one or both carriers to the cleaners.
Which brings us back to that price, which was $30 higher than predicted by the Twitterer. Remember Apple dropped iPhone prices almost immediately after the units started shipping. I don’t think this pricing is set in stone, either. Maybe the $30 is padding they’ll drop at the intro to make us feel good. Parts experts say 3G chips now cost around $7, so including one hardly adds $130 to the price or even $100.
Another point brought up against the Twitterer was the battery life (he said three hours, Apple said 10 hours). Reality in the PC and mobile industries is that a 10 hour battery life really means six hours. You may get 100 percent of the advertised battery life, but I don’t. My little Dell Vostro A90 (more on that in a day or so) is supposed to be good for six hours but the little battery meter always tells me on a full charge that I have 3:25 to go. There’s simply no way that iPad, no matter what the processor, is good for a real 10 hours of continuous use. And remember this is the non-3G version they are touting, while the Twitterer was clearly using 3G.
An iPod Touch with Wifi turned on lasts a lot longer than a comparable iPhone with WiFi turned off. In real life I’m pretty sure a 3G iPad IS a 2-3 hour device. And what’s wrong with that?
Finally, where were the split-view camera and the gimmicky solar charger? According to EnGadget the split-view cam is mentioned in the iPad SDK as “iPad-only” and some iPad apps ask you to take pictures without giving you the capability to do so…. yet. I’m sure the camera is coming. As for the solar charger, who’s to say that won’t come shortly, too?
In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if both features are present when the iPad finally ships in 60 days along with iPhone 4.0 software, which many expected to be part of yesterday’s announcement.
I was disappointed by the lack of iPhone 4.0 because this kind of device really needs true multi-tasking. I’m sure we will see it soon. What I am not at all sure about but wish we’d see soon is support for Adobe’s Flash. What does Steve Jobs have against Adobe, anyway? He used to love Adobe chairman John Warnock. There’s some weird daddy thing going on there with Apple’s rejection of Flash and I am tired of it. This new processor is plenty fast enough to support Flash and HTML 5 is still not ready for prime time.
Correction — Here’s a more informed view of the Flash situation from a friend. it’s hard to argue with his numbers:
“I did a quickie test with the new YouTube HTML5 beta. On a site that embedded a video (so Flash was used), my browser CPU utilization was 22%, and the Adobe Flash plug-in CPU utilization was 55%. (dual core macbook pro, so total CPU% = 200%).
After the video played, I watched the same video again directly on the YouTube site in HTML5. Adobe Flash plug-in CPU utilization was 4% (what it consumes just sitting on its hiney), and the browser CPU utilization was 17%.
77% vs 21%. that’s why Apple hates Adobe. There certainly may be personalities involved (with Jobs, there is always something personal), but Adobe Flash is just technically awful (this actually may be the crux of any Jobs’ hatred – he hates inelegance, and Adobe Flash is inelegant).
I don’t hate Adobe, and it does bother met that I can’t see Flash on the iPhone or iPad, but Adobe has acted very awfully in this area and doesn’t appear to be doing anything to address it. Google and Apple have the muscle to squeeze them out.”
Now we return you to Bob, already in progress:
The apps were underwhelming to me with the exception of iPhoto, but maybe that requires waiting for iPhone 4, too. Overall the product felt rushed. But knowing Steve a little bit I think he’s seeing this as a two-part intro and there will be another event around the shipping date, supposedly 60 days from now, which he’ll correctly view as yet another marketing opportunity. At that event we’ll see 3G from more than just AT&T, we’ll hear about more data plans including subsidized plans that will drop the price by $200. We’ll see the split-view camera, iPhone 4.0, and maybe even that little solar charger.
As presented yesterday the iPad was cool and I’ll probably buy one, but not right away. Fortunately many people will buy them right away then buy them again when the update equivalent to 3G (4G? HD?) comes along, just as they did with the original 2G iPone and the original 128K Mac. So I am sure the iPad will be at least a modest success, even in its initial incarnation. But you know what it feels like to me with it’s hype followed by an underwhelming reality? It feels like another Segway, which sure hasn’t changed the way people move on the Earth.
I got burned with iTouch 2st Gen, Apple used college students via rebates to lure in and then charge for $9+ USD for firmware updates which ought to have been free and then released 3rd gen quickly there after (6 months?) without any major updates to the hardware.
Any early adopter of iPad is directly funding the 2nd Gen + production lines. I think Apple’s bean counters have mastered the great scam of getting the production line and financial surges from products like iPad or iTouch to fund launch cycle for the next gen device. A sudden price drop to me would indicate they are no longer using that money to fund the next round in some way and need to draw in more users.
Really early adopters are not just paying for a device they are being fleeced for a bit of the next one as well. Its kinda like the rebates on single run technology. That money is floating somewhere for 30-90 days in some Corp account and when pooled is likely getting some decent interest.
The biggest part of the iPad 1st Gen FAIL that leads me to question Apple’s motivation is the deliberate and willful non implementation of the MicroUSB standard as the mobile smart devices. Apple agreed in June 09 for this standard. Where is it? Consumers are not even calling for it as it would standardize all their accessories and be more green.
Secondly the micro-SIM is a way to lock into certain wireless vendors. Again taking away choice and embracing a standard no one else is pushing.
In reality Apple is making the “Perfect Vertical Ecosystem” only apple in only apple out.
For all the missing things and software for the iPad launch I think the biggest is Apples non willingness to play nicely with others and the environment. But that is part of the Apple name brand.
New Apple products will work as originally advertised and generally get improved software and drop in price a few months after introduction. Just about every year they will introduced the improved model with more features and memory at the same or a lower price. So yes early adopters do get burned, but they still have the functionality that they originally purchased. But that is true for any product that gets updated. New and Improved, means that the previous versions are old and unimproved. If you want more then you will wait for the 2nd generation version, next year, or 3rd gen in two years… Just hop in when you see what you like, but it will be improved in a year or so…
No microUSB? The iPad is not meant to connect that way, you want that get a laptop. It is meant to use wireless connections and not to replace a dedicated lap- or table-top computer. Your USB peripherals are for your main computer, and iPads are not designed nor being marketed to be your main computer.
MicroSIM, is an up and coming standard, so Apple is doing as they often have, using and/or helping to create the next standard. It is about the future of computing, not it’s past.
“…works as advertised.”
NO! They do not! Steve promised “all the internet” with the original iPhone. Quite simply, you can not access “all the internet” without Flash. Flash is used for more things than grotesquely overproduced, bloated video. It is used for buttons and all manner of things without which you are unable to use many web sites. Flash is a de facto standard whether Steve likes it or not.
Everyone knows Steve has “personal issues” with Adobe. Apple should simply buy Adobe and get arid of the knuckleheads and run things they way they want.
NO FLASH EQUALS NO SALE!
I would love for Apple to buy Adobe. Years ago I thought differently because I, like Steve, admired Adobe and it is always good to have distributed power and creativity. However we see that this is not always the best thing. MS created an ecology for a constellation of businesses and products, but had to do so by buying up all challengers, burning the rainforest to plant its crops, and inartfully cobbling its software on to whatever hardware ideas came down the pike … like a kind of mold that grows on everything but doesn’t really do anything really well.
We need some elegance in the system. We need artists, not programmers and Adobe has lost its artists. Apple, whether you like it or not, hires artists.
Sorry you didn’t get the internet you promised! No company gives you everything, but Apple does the best. Take a nap now and try to dream of a world where the internet is more than just Flash … like these annoying pop ups.
The OP was talking about the MicroUSB interface as a charging standard, not as a peripheral interface standard.
This rebuke of Apple is far too mild Robert.
Come on. Where are the details explaining exactly how bad is this product?
The IPad is garbage, and I’m frankly getting tired of going from favorite commenter to favorite commenter and getting next to no details about the specs and limitations.
Robert X. Cringely, your a sell-out! Boo! I just lost all respect for you Mark Stephens.
Your post with “leaked iPad information” last minute was an attempt to get some recognition, and increased site traffic. And to top it off, your source was bogus, and now your are back-peddling in this post.
Ever since you left PBS your content has gone down hill, not to mention your ads are really annoying! Your starting to get desperate Mark, and it shows.
(no wonder you are having to write for multiple sites now)
Let’s face it Mark, your best days are behind you.
Hey Tom, why don’t you tell us (with all of your experience using the device and your intimate knowledge of the technology) how bad the iPad is! Jobs’ goal of this presentation was not to impress you, it was actually quite low energy and conveyed one simple thing … The iPad is so easy to use that even Steve Jobs just needs to sit down and fiddle with it. No explosions or speed bake offs with other manufacturers, and no marketing guys showing off their new mottos. Just a couple of developers showing some real life products/games and Steve sitting in a chair.
Why? Because the frame-rate wars are over, the os wars are at a stand still, no one really needs a faster Mac OS or Windows (just ones that don’t suck too much) and MS finally got there this year. So now the battle field is over comfort and flexibility.
The iPad if it becomes a hit, will dominate and “change the way we experience technology” because it will achieve the next level of getting out of our way!! There is barely an OS to the thing. You don’t want an os to read a book, to read your mail, to watch a movie – you just want the book, the mail and the movie.
Windows 7 or Mobile 7 or whatever hp and friends come up with will NEVER be like a book!! They will always be a book application sitting on an OS and needing a frigging start button.
The iPad is not meant to be Apple’s attack on netbooks, this is Apple’s second shot at a post-os-centric world. Millions of Windows users world wide will sync this to their pc’s and play with iWorks and in 5 years wonder why they need to boot their pc to email or read or even write term papers. The role of the iPad is to migrate more of our lives beyond Windows or even OSX.
Now do you kind of get it, Tom?
I’ve already stated how bad this product is, based on the actual specs I’ve been able to garner (unfortunately not from any of my favorite commenters such as Cringely), and of course Apple’s outrageous hyperbole about this AOL era fenced garden product.
Once again I’ll state that I’ll stay away from the ad homs. They’re essentially useless emotional refuge.
Please feel free to do the same. Or not. Whatever.
Sorry Tom, I thought your own comments about commentators were rather harsh ad hominem attacks themselves. My attacks were snarky, not ad hominem.
And “the iPad is garbage,” is not a reasoned argument.
Wow. The best techblog with the worst comments. Someone already announced a non-shipping product to be garbage. Genius. Still whining about Flash. It has no floppy drive either. You’ll live. It’ll be a Kindle-killer if it runs Kindle for iPad. Amazon doesn’t want to build hardware. Apple doesn’t want to sell books. Someone thinks Calacanis is more famous than Cringely–worse, he thinks its important. But, yeah, we all loved the documentary made from Calacanis’s best-selling book.
Why not do the blog without comments. Comments are to the internet what interviews with space-aliens in World Weekly News is to journalism.
Given the limitations that I’ve had to gather from numerous sites it frankly appears to be garbage to me. The the cost the DRM, and numerous other limitations placed on it, by Apple, are, at best, onerous.
No Flash Support. (where are you hulu and youtube? I can’t see you on my ipad)
No Onboard USB slot.
No SD card slot
No HD Screen
No HDMI
No Multitasking.
Limited codec support.
Subscription 3G. Truly the gift that keeps on giving —> you monthly bills.
Apparently Subscription 3G only on higher priced models.
3G Internet access for an estimated $15 to $29 monthly and undoubtedly bandwidth limited. Apparently not available on base model.
Limited Carriers, aka you’re almost assured the highest carrier rates (monthly rates)with next to no competition.
Stingy Storage Capacity at all levels.
Dongles galore for operability that should have been built onboard.
Locked into istores.
No web downloads of aps not sanctioned from an istore.
Pricey accessories.
Drowning in DRM.
Typical of all Apple products — Overpriced for the little it does.
And more. Much, much more.
This product is garbage, plain and simple.
When the first line of your critique decries the lack of YouTube, you kind of invalidates your knowledge of anything.
YouTube was demoed in the frickin’ presentation. It looks better on the iPad then on the desktop (thanks in part to HTML 5)
Everything else you want are features that would push it past the $1,000 price point.
The line decried the lack of FLASH. Hulu and Youtube are incidental, though valid for the masses that use it. I do, and I don’t apologize for that fact. Everything I’ve read to this point about the pad indicates it’s not capable of it.
The entire point of my two posts has been that my favorite commenters are lacking in their commentary about what the pad is capable of.
And indeed, the Flash lacks… What is shown in the presentation is the youtube app. Flash on the browsers is not available, as you can see by carefully watching the pages Steve handpicked, with some clear boxes asking for a plugin.
You are wrong (or just misinformed) on many points in your posts but just a few things here:
Youtube, Apple supplies an app for it, been watching it on my iPod Touch for years, it is on the iPad.
3G access for about 1/2 the price of current data plans, and you’re saying that it costs more?? Don’t like the “pay as you go” plan, it isn’t a subscription. And it will be available on all three models…
Dongles galore… where did this come from? There are a few connectors, for recharging and syncing, one for cameras and one for micro-sd cards. A few connectors, no real dongles here.
Drowning in DRM?? DRM is only if you rent movies/TV shows from iTunes. iTunes dropped DRM from its’ music a year or two ago. Anything that you rip of course has no DRM.
OMG it is garbage because it doesn’t do what a laptop can do and also doesn’t have that associated laptop like pricing! That is not what it is designed to be.
You don’t get it, this is not a replacement for your laptop or tabletop computer. In a few years, it probably will be able to replace them, but this is the first generation. And you apparently know noting about the iPhone, iPod Touch eco-system. OMG there are only 140,000 apps (and growing) in the App store, and the iPad is locked into it!?!
Apparently your favorite commentators are smarter than you and don’t expect the first generation of the iPad to do everything that you want it to do. They know that Apple had to balance features with relatively low pricing. Commentators comment, if you want to find out what the iPad can do, go to one of the many tech sites that are explaining what it can (and can’t) do. Go to apple.com and read about its’ specs there. Bob doesn’t really do technical reviews… he comments on technology.
If you really need Flash and Hulu, get a remote control app (there are several) for the iPad and use it to control your main computer, making the iPad a remote monitor with touch screen control of that computer and then view them with the iPad from comfort of your recliner.
When you open your eyes and stop complaining about what it can’t currently do, you will find out that it really can do a lot more than you can imagine.
Well that’s the point isn’t it. For me it’s garbage because it’s so limited it’s next to useless for what I want a tablet.
DRM is DRM it’s in pretty much all media but mp3 on the device, as I understand it. Any DRM is bad period.
What you’re not getting is that that is exactly what so many of us want from a tablet like this, and why frankly Apple dropped the ball on this device. Well that and the rest of the shortfalls of this device. We want a laptop replacement that is a working tablet that doesn’t cost a fortune and is roughly the same size, maybe a little bigger than the Apple device. If this device were that, without the rest of it’s failures I would be, and many like me, who aren’t Apple fans, would buy one. It’s pretty much worthless in it’s current incarnation and for apple to tout it as “a magical and revolutionary device” is well, hyperbole at it’s worst. It’s pretty much neither. For them to claim it’s “the best way to experience the web, email, photos, and video” is balderdash given it’s limitations.
I’ll stay away from the ad homs. Don’t see any need for it.
I wonder what the Tegra 2 based systems will have to offer?
Did anyone else notice how large the border around the viewable screen is? They could easily have used the rumored 10.1″ screen and had room left over.
Tom has a good list of failures.
As usual, Steve under delivers.
Um, that border is for your thumbs and fingers so that you can hold the thing without screwing up multi-touch.
You need to grow in self awareness, my friend.
Tell me how iTunes, the App Store, the iPod, the iPhone, the MacBook specifically demonstrate under delivering. You know about as much about the iPad that will ship as my 10 year old nephew. I think Jobs showed the websites with the empty spaces for Flash on purpose. He is showing how lame it is for Flash to not be on par with other web tech and I would bet half my pay check that Flash is on board by May, and if not it is one version update away.
Sure. No problem. The istores are a walled garden. They fail to deliver by that fact alone.
The “walled garden” is a significant issue … except for the fact that all stores are a walled garden of sorts. Do you want the iPad to run Fortran77 and old Intellivision cassettes? I generally don’t like being told what to do or what to buy, but this is the beginning of a whole new computing model and business model and as much as Palm did very well for a while, there were some real problems with being too open. Security and quality control are first order issues that for now trump wild west freedom. It has been painful just keeping things in line with one carrier in the states and on operating system and store front. You really think getting you next fart app from fartapps.com will make your life better?
The point is that no smart phone is totally open and everyone should have a mac or pc to deal with running companies and mission critical stuff. the iPod Touch and iPad are information and entertainment devices that supplement your computer life … until we all live in the clouds. By that point Google, Apple, telecoms and probably governments will have to work out “openness” in ways we haven’t imagined yet.
Until then, this is a major time of transition and sometimes in such circumstances a walled garden is not an inappropriate place to be.
Hey – I resemble that remark
For the record, I think Calacanis is a worthless blowhard but I’m quite sure he’s better known than Cringely by people who follow tech news these days. You can argue with that if you’d like, but you can’t claim he’s an anonymous nobody as Cringely’s lack of attribution implied. Either Cringely doesn’t know who he is which makes him seem out of touch, or he deliberately withheld attribution to make it seem as if he had some sort of inside track.
And really he should have smelled a hoax before posting those tweets (HDTV tuner?!?) and to claim that the discrepancies with the actual specs were due to last-minute changes is strained at best. And now that Calacanis has admitted it was an “obvious hoax” Cringely still hasn’t updated the post with a correction? As I said before, he pretty clearly has a problem admitting when he’s been had.
One more thing – if I’m an example of one of the “worst commenters” I’d like to know what Internet you’re hanging out on
The model I was allowed to see from a Verizon tester was different than the Jobs presentation. The field tech was using it on the 4G Network, didn’t have iLife but did work remotely with AppleTV – that feature made me whistle – after signing in, one could access content from Apple TV unit anywhere in the home, or even outside on patio – music, photos, HD movies – I was shocked that was not part of presentation. Very impressed with iBook feature. No phone feature at all. Next to nobody will use this for business at all – this is an appliance, a fun accessory, but I think I’d be happy taking this on the bus, to the park, the beach, I prefer this to iTouch. If enough sell, I’m sure the iTouch will be phased out.
Ah, the Apple TV streaming link is what I want this for. A couple of Apple TV wireless players could allow us to replace a couple MacBooks around the house. Sweet.
And when you add in the iPhone games/apps, eBooks, and web surfing, this is a cool beast!
/course, will be waiting to see how iPad matures and evolves before getting one.
You crazy, Cringe. That dude said he was making it up… OR WAS HE MAYBE JUST LYING ABOUT LYING?!! (To hide from Steve Paul Jobs, or course!) An answer for everything! Perfectly wrapped up. Dork.
Of course, when the government wants to control leaks, they slightly alter each version of a document. Or at least according to a Clancy book I read back in Jr. High. It’s possible the pricing given to this media outlet was different from the one given to other media outlets, so that they could better identify a leak later on.
The reason that iP*d products will never get Flash is that all apps could be written in Flash, eliminating the need for native apps purchased from the app store.
Thanks that’s the most probable explanation I’ve heard yet.
That would only be true if Adobe actually put more effort into developing it further. I loved Adobe, but it turned into MS by buying a cool technology and then letting it sit on a shelf.
Those who know about the underpinnings of Flash, know that it was THE thing 5-7 years ago, but even with so many Flash developers and a good start, it has remained bloated and is hitting a wall that Apple sees in front of it.
I hope Adobe actually puts more than 100 engineers on this and makes it leaner and meaner so that Jobs will put it on the iStuff. Flash like Java will be ubiquitous, but it won’t replace other programming languages.
Try the new beta flash. It has a lot to offer, aside from the fact it sort of proves Adobe hasn’t let it stagnate. Well relatively recently anyway.
It doesn’t seem plausible that a hardware beta tester would be given any pricing information.On the other hand, it’s certainly possible that Apple has been beta testing various versions of the iPad hardware (although solar seems a little far out). And maybe those test are still in progress.
I agree. Although I’ve been watching the recent developments on a product for which I’ve been waiting quite a long time. They announced the price for the product a few weeks ago, and it was identical to the price speculated by the beta testers.
What that means I’m not quite sure, but speculation leads me in the direction that beta testers tend to have a finger on the pulse of what the market is willing to bear. Probably because they typically roam from forum to forum discussing the product.
“Fortunately many people will buy them right away then buy them again when the update equivalent to 3G (4G? HD?) comes along”.
Fortunately? You must mean sadly, wastefully and irresponsibly surely?
I wanted to add some experience to the Flash question. This last week I’ve been bringing together and tuning a script to make it easy for AppleTv owners to get Boxee Beta on their devices while we wait for an official release. On my trip down this road I found out how really bad adobe’s flash performance really was on a the mac platform and what they are doing about it.
On a 1GHz Apple TV Youtube can not play smoothly using the official flash in boxee. Apparently it’s doing awful things like spending 30% of it’s time, all the time, continually making the same text rendering calls. Essentially Adobe failed to run flash through any meaningful profile tracing during it’s development, and there are dirty mistakes everywhere that one assumes they just didn’t know about. The cavet of giving your developer a very strong machine and not really testing on anything else.
There is hope however, the Adobe beta flash is much better. CPU usage is way down for the same content vs the current public version. Obviously this pressure is being felt at Adobe and someone is at least grabbing the low hanging fruit. I think we’ll see a public release before year end and old mac everywhere will suddenly feel like their computer is just faster.
Typed from a 1.6 Ghz Power Book G4.
Keith
Became curious when I read about the performance impact of Flash and that HTML5 would be so much better.
Here are my measurements:
MacBook 2GHz Core 2 Duo, OSX 10.5.8,
Safari 4.0.4, Google Chrome 4.0.249.49,
20 Mbps internet connection.
Test: watching Steve presenting iPad on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pJpDYLOR1I
Result:
using HTML5 Safari uses 47% CPU (both cores)
using Flash (10.0) Safari uses 23.5% CPU (both cores)
using HTML5 Chrome uses 30% CPU (both cores)
using Flash (10.0) Chrome uses 68% CPU (both cores)
So who is bad? What about your measurements?
PS: to me Flash 10.0 on Safari 4 looks like the best combo in town…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1H5vRffCzo&feature=popular
HTML5:
Safari 20% CPU
Flash 10:
Flash Player (Safari Internet Plugin) 61% CPU
Safari 18% CPU
20% vs, 79%
MacBook 2.4 Ghz Core 2 Duo, 2GB Memory, Intel GMA X3100, Mac OS X 10.6.2
I forgot to add that I was running Safari in 64 bit.
I would suggest you try both the official flash release, then install the flash beta and do your test again. Your numbers should be quite different. http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/flashplayer10/
Not to mention the following comments by jobs in an employee only town hall meeting after the ipad launch.
Apple does not support Flash because it is so buggy, he says. Whenever a Mac crashes more often than not it’s because of Flash. No one will be using Flash, he says. The world is moving to HTML5.
http://www.kaourantin.net/2010/02/core-animation.html
From the an adobe engineers mouth. The test results at the bottom are impressive, going from 40% combined to 17% of cpu usage.
[...] where he will announce IPad upgrades to fix the booboo’s from his rushed initial release. Here is the link. Hmmm … Bezos gets some credit here if indeed the release was [...]
Apple-Flash and Adobe, a little revenge and some history.
In the late 90′s Macromedia’s Flash 4 would export to and play nicely in the Quicktime player, perhaps with working buttons (can’t remember the memory has faded over the years). Adobe’s Photoshop was also one of the tools that helped Apple achieve legitimacy and helped Apple establish it’s platform as the leader in the ‘desktop publishing’ revolution.
Subsequently, Jobs left and Apple struggled, losing significant market share – remember Mike Dell suggesting there was no future for Apple?
Before Macromedia was purchased by Adobe, the rumor mills and developer’s community hoped Apple would be the final owner of Flash.
Apple’s platform and processor struggles during this period were aggravated by Adobe’s decision To release Photoshop and other updates for the Windows platform before updates for the Apple platform – contrary to the historical norm where Apple was Adobe’s preferred first release platform and the top graphics outfits all used Apple equipment.
Additionally, Adobe ‘borked’ the Flash player when they did a ground up rewrite of the player. Historically, the flash player would reliably remove from memory any asset the developer deleted from the code and though sloppy flash could clog any machine, it was relatively simple to optimize Flash. Even today the latest iteration of the Flash player, though more efficient and capable of hardware acceleration, is still plagued by structural memory release problems that may never be resolved… bottom line – Flash is more difficult to learn and manage by at least an order of magnitude and slower and buggier on a 2.4ghz windows machine today than it was on an 800ghz machine a few years back.
In the ‘old days’ the Apple / Adobe alliance benefited both companies and established Adobe’s tools as market leaders. Subsequently, Adobe appears to have abandoned their preferred provider relationship with Apple and we are merely witnessing Steve Job’s response to the snub…
The iPad has not changed my life…
Well, it’s here. It would have been good to have a couple more billable hours today, but I used my time to follow two live blogs (Gizmodo, Engadget) of the Event That Will Change Everything, while edging ever closer to the slippery slope of the f…
You forgot to mention the real game changing announcement. You briefly touched on it but I think the AT&T data plans is the important piece. $15/$30 for a real data plan with no contract compared to a pretty standard $60 contract price is a huge game changer. That includes AT&Ts hot spot access which I’m not too excited about (there’s plenty of free WiFi around these days). I think this will force the cellular providers to release some of the strangle hold they currently have on consumers just to stay competitive.
I guess what I’m curious about is how much bandwidth that allows you. What’s the download cap is my question.
Bob, would you please from now check your podcast before uploading it? I really enjoy your work, but the podcasts (which I prefer from a time and efficiency point of view) frequently have bad audio. For example, this iPad podcast is missing one of the two channels (only the left side comes through). It is not as though re-recording these would be difficult — you’re not ad-libbing, after all. Otherwise, I love your insights and hope they keep coming. I also think you’ve improved upon yourself since leaving PBS. Keep it up!
Hi Bob,
Too many points in your article to debate in detail via comments, but here’s a quick bullet summary:
* Calcanis as “real” beta tester?
No, he doesn’t work for Apple and Apple doesn’t do beta testing with outsiders. Even Walt-freakin’-Mossberg didn’t see one prior to the event Wednesday. It is not possible that Apple would let Jason see one early, and outside of the Apple campus no less. All other points are red herrings, and could easily have been put together simply from published rumors.
* Availability on Verizon one day.
Again no, the iPad still uses GSM, not CDMA. Apple would have to file with the FCC at least 90 days before shipping a CDMA version, so it would be difficult to hide. That’s the reason that the 3G version ships in 90 days instead of 60 like the WiFi version.
* Pre-pay vs. 1 and 2 year plans. As Apple’s partner, only AT&T is required to offer the $15 and $30 pre-paid plans, but no other carrier has so far been allowed to even offer these devices (iPhone and iPad) for sale. Other carriers would have to get their plans approved by Apple without interfering with the AT&T contract in order to even sell the device.
* Battery life.
Jobs claimed 10 hours continuous use watching video (“… I can fly from SFO to Tokyo…”). This will be the bar for battery life. In testing by Ars, Pogue, etc. previous Apple products have met and in some cases exceeded Apple claims. No reason to expect that this one would only live up to 60% or so of that claim as you suggest.
* Battery life on iPod Touch with WiFi on, vs. iPhone with WiFi off. The iPhone has a 3G chip, which is a real battery hog. This was Jobs’ stated reason for not including 3G in the original iPhone. I would expect the iPad 10+ hour claim to be in “airline mode,” given the example (flying to Tokyo) and the fact that there’s little reason to use the radios when you’re watching movies.
* New hardware features appearing between now and ship date: (No chance)
– This would make Steve Jobs look stupid for not announcing on 1/27 (didn’t he KNOW about these features?)
– Apple marketing message and pictures — maybe even Ives’ movie — would have to be re-shot.
– Changes would have to be made at least 30 days prior to launch or Apple would legally have to cancel all pre-orders and (hopefully) rebook them. That costs money AND customer goodwill.
* iPhone OS 4.0 appearing before launch.
Also no chance. Why waste developers’ time with OS 3.2 for iPad if it’s never going to be used in production? This would be a serious blow to developers with no possible upside for Apple.
* Flash support. (Probably never)
See @Gruber’s article on Daring Fireball for best explanation. Summary is that Apple doesn’t want to be beholden to an outside developer for things that go wrong on this device (or the iPhone) and so Flash will never be implemented, even if someday it doesn’t suck.
Hubris requires me to offer to discuss this in email if you like, or over coffee some time if you’re in the SF Bay area.
Cheers!
Ah, that Hubris, he’s a bit of a jerk.
Good points, but Jobs didn’t show websites with inactive Flash boxes by accident. This isn’t over yet.
Perhaps. Either that or Apple pulled a MS ineptitude screening. Please feel free to discuss your reasoning.
Hmmm. A lot of “Apple could or might still” do something, and a lot of rationalizing why your source had so much incorrect, insofar as the announced iPad is concerned. Sure, Apple might make changes before it is released. Then again, they might not. All we *really* know is what was actually announced and the specs Apple has provided on their website. Everything else is vaporware. So Bob, just admit that a lot of it was wrong. Cameras? HDTV tuner? PVR? Multitasking? OLED screen? Fingerprint reader? And you spent today’s blog entry mostly on defending the price point and battery life?
Personally, the iPad will still be cool without those things, but that is beside the point. The beta tester’s info was way off the mark as it related to what Apple actually announced. And that’s what counts.
Just because Bob expanded on the joke from day one doesn’t make it less of a joke. It’s funny and was meant to be funny, by both Calicanis and Cringely. If he defends it tomorrow, it will be hilarious, especially the comments pointing out the inaccuracies. This all reminds me of John Stewart’s surprised reaction to criticisims of his political coverage. “This is Comedy Central”. Get it?
RonC, you need to shutup! I’ve read some of your previous posts, all you ever do is kiss up to Mark Stephens (AKA: Robert X. Cringely). In this case Mark was obviously WAY off, and was a jerk for posting it, and even more of a jerk for trying to back-peddle and lie his way out of it.
Let’s face it, Mark Stephens was wrong and was just seeking after more Ad traffic on his website. I mean with all the buzz surrounding the Apple launch, just mentioning it I bet quadrupled his regular traffic. Judging from Mark starting to write columns for Mortgage sites, and AOL would give you a clue that he is starting to get strapped for cash.
I bet Mark Stephens wishes right now that he would have just stayed with PBS.
Sounds like you have a personal issue with Cringely. I never thought of myself as supporting him. I’m usually critical of his liberal slant on politics and always blaming big buniness (e.g. IBM managers) and conservatives for all the world’s problems. But I have enjoyed his column since 1997. He is a real journalist and commentator (not a new blogger) and I suspect he was also making fun of the credibility the internet has given to bloggers. I admit that I did not get the joke at first since all the predictions about the iPad have been pie-in-the-sky for the past couple of years. I got the joke after the fact when I found out (here) it was Calicanis especially since he was on TWIT the Sunday before iPad-Wednesday and stated he had no inside knowledge about the product.
I also didn’t realize until now that it was possible for two people to use the same name on this blogging platform. Although I have been known to admit when I’m wrong, I usually don’t tell myself to shut up.
The iPhone/iTouch system is as much about ultra-mobile computing as it is about music, video and telephone. Now Apple is expanding the product matrix with a new device that is less portable but more capable as a computer. Think about what this line is doing with students already. The perfect demographic for the iPad is the middle school girl. She has a cell phone and spends much of her life texting her friends. She either got, or wishes she’d gotten a Touch for Christmas. Now here’s a new toy she can use for her photos, music and Facebook. It will run all the games she’s already downloaded for the Touch PLUS she can use it for her homework (Pages and Keynote).
Apple is defining the personal computing platform for the next generation.
You are spot on, but there’s even more. As someone who looks after company and personal computers for quite a few people, the thing that jumps out about the iPad is that it’s just simple. Any fool can use it and understand it (and there’s already a base of 10s of millions who will know exactly how to use it when they get their hands on it).
The thing that’s annoyed me for years about PCs (and Macs) is that they are just too difficult for most people to use and manage. Far too difficult. And that’s a necessary price of being such general purpose machines. Well, the iPad pretty much solves that problem as far as I can see. Users won’t feel helpless and belittled, they’ll just get on with doing what they want. That’s a good thing.
Yes, this is Steve’s next step in a post-os future.
You, Cringely, have finally gone insane.
If this is a joke, you really need to stop. It’s the least funny one you’ve ever published (that I’ve read, anyhow).
If anyone other than Apple created the iPad the company would be labeled “Geniuses!” “Apple Killers!” “the new Google” and “Revolutionaries!” etc.
People’s evangelical hate of the iPad is more about poo-pooing Apple than the iPad technological and functional limitations.
Imagine if MS or Google created a product that: ran all existing iPhone/iPod Touch apps, had the form factor and function of the iPad, had a built in and easy to use store, had traditional media up on stage at the launch, used their own chip, had a suite of apps for just ~$30, etc.
The iPad will will make more of an impact than the iPhone because old people will actually be able to see the bigger screen and youth know cool and function better than anyone.
I’m tired of all this Flash-bashing. Is CPU utilization some kind of precious resource that we need to conserve? Of course not! If I’m watching Hulu full-screen, I’m not simultaneously running iTunes–which is a far bigger resource hog than Flash could ever hope to be! Steve Jobs, let my people go!
Hi Bob,
I noticed this week that your audio podcast is only present in the left speaker, it sounds rather odd and I would be most grateful if you can return your future podcasts to a stereo format for easier listening.
Thank you in advance and best wishes
Thanks for your insights Bob.
How technologically difficult would be to mass-produce an ipod touch-like device that has the capability to unfurl panels that create, say an 8 1/2 x 11 screen ?.
I could carry it in my pocket and have access to all sorts of things from books, to newspapers, to magazines to the Internet.
Anyone who wants to use Apple or Adobe products pays a super-premium price to do so. I admit my amazement that so many people are willing and have the dollars. It is especially sad to see novices get sucked in by the false impression that Apple products are extra easy to use — they soon discover otherwise.
Uh, dude. My 74 year old mother, who let the really nice Windows laptop my brother bought for her collect dust, now emails up a storm with her iPhone. She has hated every computer she has ever had up until that one. Its her favorite possession. I think that is what makes me think that we will look back at the iPad announcement and realized that is when the old PC died and the new regime began. The whole paradigm is so accessible, so intuitive, that you know immediately how all its major functions work. Its all us old computer users that have to adjust.
Ralphie having trouble figuring out how to use that overpriced Shuffle?
I, personally, will be buying an iPad, because it syncs my e-mail, calendar, and contacts, seamlessly and in real-time with google mail/apps via activesync. That’s frickin awesome.
Your friend with the Flash numbers wouldn’t happen to be Michael Copeland over at CNN Money, would it?
Love it or hate it Flash is everywhere (and not just for video) on the web.
Without Flash the iPad browser cannot be used with many major websites.
That means the iPad is even more of a niche device, essentially restricted to email, iTunes, and iStore applications (plus Pages and Keynote)
Since the iPad represents such a small percentage of browsers, why should web developers bother to switch from Flash to HTML 5?
Because Google is pushing HTML5 as well.
At this rate we are all going to be working for peanuts.
I found this link via Daring Fireball. I have to say I agree wholeheartedly. The iPad is Apple saying that the future has arrived and the desktop model of computing is near end-phase. Apple sold a lot of Apple II’s after the Mac was released, but the iPad, with iWork that uses multitouch and gestures to do things that took menus before, points to a time in which you will buy standalone multitouch portable devices as your primary computing device and forgo standard Macs and PCs.
Here’s that link. http://stevenf.tumblr.com/post/359224392/i-need-to-talk-to-you-about-computers-ive-been
Then why is a Mac or PC a requirement to use the iPad? Seems like it’s a big iPod Touch that doesn’t replace anything.
Oh, as for Flash, after hearing all arguments, I think I am in the HTML 5-quit-using-proprietary-software-for-common-uses camp. Flash is the only major standard on the web that is proprietary. With HTML 5, there is no real need for it anymore. And my experience with HTML 5 and Safari has been pretty positive.
Not having the ability to swap out the battery when it fails is a big pain with the touch and the phone. I really don’t understand why Apple doesn’t build these devices (including the iPad) to allow removal of the battery via easy pull out like on laptops etc. Having bought 4 iPod touches over the past few years, and now having to deal with battery replacement is a major pain. There is plenty of capability/room to accomodate a swapable battery. I won’t buy another one of these land-locked battery devices until something more elegant is put in the design.
battery: Apple (alias Stevie the Wonder) feels replaceable batteries have a serious “clunky” factor. the doors fall off, the batteries fall out, it adds weight and thickness and busts up the smooth lines, etc. besides, the swap-out plan is a goldmine.
game-changer: I just had a stunning insight into that, which I will steal from my blog. or at least, I was less-stunned enough to type… .
>the game changer is the Apple store servicing the content.
the pad itself is a color version of whatever, if you’re thinking eReader only. but Apple is the only one with “over three billion served” and almost universal acceptance in the market.
which fixes the whine about micropayments that has killed every other print media or music eStorefront. the billing charges from V/A/M/D are ten times, nay a hundred times, the couple pennies you would charge Jimmy Neutron to read his comic book online.
now everybody can put a balance on their Apple Store account, Apple can invest the money before sending $50,000 this week to the NYT, and $45,000 to the WSJ, and $80,000 to the M-O-U-S-E, the customer sees the correct decrement in their positive balance for their media views, and all are happy.
for several years, when I’ve felt obliged to throw in my smirking observation on a thread ‘o’ rants over media charges online, I’ve said if everybody got together for a central payment system, charge the user a pittance for each read, and decrement from a balance, it might work to charge for online content.
Apple’s store is the only practical system in place.
so starting fall or next year, you will see a big push by big media towards the Apple slate. as in “desperation for survival” push.
oh, yes, the flip side. Apple has always said they don’t make a profit on the Apple store’s media charges (no, they aren’t sales, they are period licenses for personal use of the content.) well, hey, Momma, they will now. so why did the ID10Ts sell down the stock? buy opportunity once you have done your proper due diligence, realizing that all non-bonded investments may lose some or all of their value. offer is made only by the Prospectus. your mileage may vary. oh what a feeling. yo’momma.
Forgive the delay but I listen to the podcast and only got around to listening to this one today.
Regardless, referring to “unjaundiced” looks, here’s my review of the content from two of your recent columns:
from your iPad beta tester’s pronouncements;
• OLED screen – not
• solar recharging pad on back – not
• 3G provided by AT&T and Verizon – not
• thumbpads on left and right side of screen – not
• two cameras – not & not
• how about just one camera? – …sorry
• which brings into question the mention of “super stable” video conferencing. Very stable!! – not
• fingerprint recognition security (!?!?!) – not
• multi-tasking – uh-uh
• up to 5 individual user profiles, determined by that non-existent fingerprint recognition – not
• 2-3 hours battery life while playing games (let’s include that caveat) – not (a user would certainly get better performance on a brand new unit, given Apple’s current device-specific battery design process; to suggest actual results would be, at best, 30% of advertised would be saying Apple would certainly be inviting a class action law suit within the first year of this device’s release)
• HDTV tuner – not (Christ!! Where does this end!?!)
• PVR – you guessed it! not
then, there are your subsequent day’s effort to give the Twitterer’s predictions plausibility;
• “Just because Apple didn’t mention Verizon doesn’t mean they won’t also offer 3G service from Verizon. The word ‘exclusive’ was never used referring to AT&T. They trotted-out that pre-paid plan, but it would be crazy for carriers to not also offer a one-year or two-year subscription plan, too, which would drop the unit price somewhat. Maybe the subscription rates weren’t yet set.” Well, if fifteen years down the road Apple announces an agreement with Verizon – or any other data-service provider, whether 3G or whatever technology is in effect at that time – I guess we’ll have to agree that, yes, you were right, Robert. But let’s be honest. Your “source” said both AT&T and Verizon would be involved. They didn’t say “someday”.
• The Twitterer was “strictly referring” to the 3G cost when (s)he stated pricing would start at $599? Well, that’s certainly convenient! For them and you!! Your source knows the introductory price to within $30 but doesn’t know that the device they hold in their hands does not, in fact, include a camera? The most significant single piece of news provided in Job’s iPad announcement was the low, low price of $499. If your source – “in a position to know” – wasn’t aware of that and hadn’t ever actually held one of these devices in their hands (see front- and rear-facing cameras prophesy) they were not aware of anything!
• A “two-part intro” – i.e. a second announcement to accompany the device’s release? I may well be wrong here but I can’t recall Apple doing anything along those lines previously – a follow-up press event just a couple-three months after the initial announcement.
If you’re reading the tech press at all, you are also seeing the tremendous negative response to the iPad’s announced feature list. Between now and its ultimate availability, the lack of camera(s), multi-tasking, iPhone 4.0 OS and everything else this thing lacks, the bad mouthing is going to be a huge hurdle for the Apple Marketing Dept. to overcome. If any of those features were planned, I would think Steve might have mentioned them last week!
WTF, Robert!?! At what point do you admit that the person whose information you based your column on either knew absolutely nothing about the iPad or simply scammed all their followers, including you and, now, everyone who read or listened to your piece!
Your readers/listeners deserve an apology. Seriously.
yours,
Alex Machi
Good disinformation from the twitteratti. Felix Dzershinsky would be proud.
My Summary:
The iPad is not DOA or even COA (Cold on Arrival), but it’s just barely WOA (Warm on Arrival). It’ll just tag along and be profitable, but unlike most Apple products, it won’t even get better in the next release and it won’t gain a cult following, which is necessary for it to survive.
Lisa, here comes your pad to stop the bleeding!
teeasdasdasd
[...] I, Cringely » Blog Archive » iPad, Therefore I Am [...]
Bob,
Segway?
Textbook, textbook, textbook. Library (books, periodicals, magazines – where providers get paid and don’t go out of business.
Did catch Digital Nation on Frontline?
-Bubba
OK techies some financial tidbits; http://www.guerillastocktrading.com/technical-analysis/apples-itampoon-bloody-sell-off Some Apple comments, Steve Jobs has his eye on a potential revolutionary breakthrough from this company EEStor which is backed by VC firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (silicon valley’s premiere VC) and if you want in this company ZNNMF Description ZENN MOTOR COMPANY INC which has a 10% stake as stock from EEStor is not otherwise available. To get money out of a rock is easier than out of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers!!!! You will all thank me for this info soon!
[...] of comments of all kinds across the internet, where some has been calling the device over-hyped and under-performing, and others have hailed it as the device that will change mobile computing, and still other [...]
So long Cringely, thanks for all the great memories!
[...] The Apple iPad= a big iPod Touch or Newton for that matter. (Minyanville, peHUB, Gizmodo, All Things D, Silicon Alley Insider, Cringley) [...]
[...] even more of them have been negative. Personally I understand that. Robert Cringley doesn't seem to like the iPad all that much, and neither does John Dvorak, while John Gruber over at DaringFireball.net seems to like it quite [...]
Are you that naive, to be taken it by Calacanis like that?
You want someone who called it, look at my post:
iPad Post-Event Scorecard
http://ebooktest.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/ipad-post-event-scorecard/
Very Good information,I have bookmarked this site to my seo list for future and will keep a eye on your other postings.
F/s: Official Apple i-Phone 3Gs (32Gb), Blackberry Onyx 9700,Nokia X6 Completely brand new original
unlocked cost…$320 usd.
Carrier: AT&T (GSM based), T-Mobile
Technology: 3G EURO Standard, Quad Band 850/900/1800/1900
Blackberry Onyx 9700 at $320USD
Blackberry Bold 9000 at $280USD
Blackberry Storm 9500 Touch Screen at $300USD
BlackBerry Javelin 8900 at $310USD
Blackberry Thunder 9500 at $330USD
Blackberry Pluto at $350USD
Blackberry Tour at $340USD
Blackberry 9630 TOUR Smartphone cost $330USD
Blackberry Storm 2 9550 Smartphone cost $340USD
Blackberry Curve 8520 Gemini Smartphone cost $320US
3Gs Apple iPhone 32GB at $320USD
3Gs Apple iPhone 16GB at $300USD
Nokia E72 Zodium Black at $300USD
Nokia N97 (32GB) Mini at $350USD
Nokia N96 (16GB) at $330USD
Nokia E97 at $340USD
Nokia X6 at $370USD
Nokia N900 at $390usd
Sony Ericsson Xperia at $310USD
Sony Ericsson W995 at $320USD
Sony Ericsson Satio (Idou) at $340USD
Sony Ericsson Aino Luminous White cost $350USD
Samsung Omnia PRO B7610 cost $320
Samsung I8000 Omnia II cost ..$310USD
HTC Hero at $350USD
HTC Diamond at $300USD
HTC Touch PRO2 at $320USD
HTC Hero Android G2 A6262 White Smartphone cost $360USD
T-Mobile myTouch 3G Smartphone Black cost $330USD
BONANZA:
Buy 2 units and get 1 unit FREE.
Buy 5 units and get 2 unit FREE
Buy 10 units to get 4 units FREE including shipping.
Contact us as below :
GLOBAL LONE-STAR INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANCY LTD.
Email: glonestar.intc@gmail.com
MSN IM: gati01136668@hotmail.com
SKYPE: glcltd9910111
Tel: +231-771-989-03 OR +231-612-0634
I recently started out building my own solar panels – I utilized some video guides I found and it’s working out excellent!
> There’s simply no way that iPad, no matter what the
> processor, is good for a real 10 hours of continuous use.
According to reviews, battery life is 9-10 hours for browsing and 11-12 hour for video.
> In real life I’m pretty sure a 3G iPad IS a 2-3 hour device.
Hard to say given that the 3G isn’t out yet, but I won’t be surprised if it’s 2X-3X that, depending on usage.
Not to beat a dead horse, but the iPad 3G is out, and its battery life has been tested over at iLounge at 8.5 hours for browsing using 3G (50% brightness downloading large webpages every minute… For reference, the same test yields 10+ hours for wifi). So much for it being a 2-3 hour device.
In somewhat related (or at least tangential) news, HP cancelled the Windows 7 based Slate (that was to have been released next month). It’s not surprising given that netbooks generally suck down 6-8 watts vs the iPad’s 2-3 (you might hit 4 watts playing games on the iPad, but doing CPU intensive stuff with a current netbook can get you up to 10-15 watts).
Obviously it’s also a (perhaps even bigger) problem for HP that using Windows 7 with a touchscreen is a clunky, tedious experience. In theory, that could be addressed with software tweaks… it doesn’t seem likely given that Tablet PC has been around for almost 10 years, but at least it’s possible. What isn’t possibly is a 1.5 pound tablet providing both a good battery life and responsive experience with a desktop OS. At least not with current hardware.
Maybe HP will resurrect the product as a WebOS device next year (now that would be interesting!)