Remembering Y2K
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Tonight marks the 10th anniversary of Y2K, so I’m using it as an excuse to look back at lessons learned and not learned from that experience. The greatest lessons had to do with psychology, not technology.
Y2K was no surprise to me. I wrote a chapter on it in my book Accidental Empires back in 1991 — fully nine years before the actual deadline. To my knowledge that was the first in-depth explanation of Y2K in the mass media. I explained how the problem came to be, how it could be solved, and predicted that doing so would cost a lot of money and force a transition on the way corporations and governments used technology.
In early 1999 someone at PBS came up with the bright idea that I do a TV special about Y2K to run that October, setting audience expectations about what was to come. Going into that project I remember the producers expected it to be about all the stuff that was likely to go wrong. After all, I had written eight years before that we were in peril. But when I jumped into the research in 1999 I found that Y2K remediation, as it was called, seemed to be going well. I also found that systems weren’t as inter-connected or dependent as many of us had thought — that the world simply wasn’t as much at risk as we feared. I had to fight for this position, but ultimately that was the more conservative story we told two months before the actual event. And we were right.
PBS, to its credit, was the only U. S. television network with the guts to do such a show in primetime or anytime. We took a position — a controversial one it turned out — and justified it with research. Other networks preferred to play the doom card over and over again.
Y2K remediation cost $50-100 billion for the U. S. alone. Probably half of that money would have been spent on IT improvements anyway, but an extra 25-50 billion 1999 dollars is still a lot of dough. Much of it was spent on Y2K-related issues but a lot of it was spent on this-and-that. Y2K was such an arcane problem and so far above the heads of typical CEOs that it was viewed by IT departments as a chance to buy all the cool stuff they never could before. A lot of cool stuff was bought on top of all the other cool stuff being bought because this was also the time of the dot-com Internet Bubble.
I have wondered how much of the economic downturn in 2000 and 2001 – the collapse of the Internet Bubble — was actually due to the passage of Y2K with its excessive IT purchasing and labor costs.
While making that TV special I spent weeks interviewing experts and self-proclaimed experts including survivalists. What I learned then was a story that I don’t think ever really came out. It consists of three parts:
1) Desire: the people warning the loudest about Y2K, those hoarding lentils and suggesting the end of the world was coming, really wanted to be right. They not only thought Y2K was going to be a disaster, they wanted it to be a disaster.
2) Paranoia: the people who were so upset about Y2K — the survivalists and others who headed to the mountains and other sparsely-populated areas — didn’t go to the country because they thought the cities would collapse. They thought the rule of law would collapse and there would be Mad Maxian mass civil unrest. And all that unrest would be aimed squarely at them — the arrogant and narcissistic survivalist leaders. They just assumed that all the other folks who stupidly hadn’t been hoarding lentils would want their lentils and would be coming for them, possibly armed. They expected that Y2K would not only delay Social Security checks, it would lead to armed insurrection aimed at they and their lentils. I am not making this up.
3) Disappointment: When the worst didn’t happen and these same folks found themselves in the middle nowhere with half a ton of lentils, they were disappointed the world hadn’t fallen apart after all. Some of those people still haven’t recovered.
When Y2K: The Winter of Our Disconnect? aired that October (pre-Y2K), it produced the greatest e-mail response of any show I ever made — almost 3,000 messages in the first week. Most of those messages were negative, some extremely so. Many viewers saw me as irresponsible. They claimed that my irresponsible actions would lead to the deaths of hundreds — perhaps thousands — of PBS viewers, lulled into inaction by my false reassurances. Some viewers said I deserved to die for making the show. A few suggested they would kill me themselves.
It reminded me to a certain extent of the minor firestorm a couple weeks ago over my Christmas card, though at least that one produced no death threats.
So I was Public Enemy Number One in October, 1999 for suggesting that Y2K would turn out to be no big deal. And what happened in January, when it became clear that my show was 100 percent correct? Nothing. Not a single e-mail came to me from any of those people.
Audiences: you can’t live with them, you can’t live without them.
Happy New Year.
Pretty impressive blog!! I just found your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed listening to your opinions. Any way I’ll be coming back and I hope you post again soon!
When I read a good article I usually do three things:1.Forward it to my relevant friends.2.Bookmark it in all of the best bookmarking websites.3.Make sure to come back to the blog where I first read the post.After reading this article I am seriously concidering doing all 3!
Ain’t the first commenter telling the real truth or what??
Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
Thanks a million. This has been nice knowing
Hi; Excellent informations for me. Your post has valuable infos. I wish to has good posts like yours in my blog. How do you make these posts?
Thanks very good \o/
Excellent weblog, keep myself from looking it, I\\\’m seriously serious to find out another recommendation of it.
great thanks man…
I agree with you and it definitely gonna guide lot of people.
I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me.
You are so funny!!! I have become obsessed with your website and I spend most of my days reading all your archives. And I signed up JUST to post comments. I wish I had found out about sooner, and I wish you updated as much as you used to! You must be super busy now though because you are so famous!!
Hello i’m so pleased I discovered your weblog, I in reality identified you by mistake, while I was searching Yahoo for some thing else, At Any Charge I am right here now and would just like to say thank you for a wonderful weblog posting plus a all spherical intriguing blog (I also really like the theme/design), I do not have time to read all of it on the correct now but I have bookmarked it and good data, this in fact helpful for me. There is absolutely nothing to argue about.
Pjktufjcpfhdp NJ solar power HkmgxsvsgnsxrHrtbkbdeuafow
Thanks for the amazing info. I find these posts have a lot of material. I can’t wait to get a moment to impliment all these great thoughts. Thank you very much.
After reading you blog, I thought your articles is great! I am very like your articles. I bookmarked your blog! I trust you will behave better from now on.
get playstation move free http://bit.ly/d8oBsl
I will be trying to do my best to come uponsuch another artice as it is.
my comment got eaten. Anyway I wanted to say that it’s nice to know that someone else also mentioned this
keep up this good work. Excellent post
Stumbled into this site by chance but I’m sure glad I clicked on that link. You definitely answered all the questions I’ve been dying to answer for some time now. Will definitely come back for more of this. Thank you so much
Really creative blog here! Did you think of all of this content yourself or did you have some help? be honest.. lol
Really glad I found this article! Thank you so much for submitting.
Really superb info can be found on site here .
Quite a beautiful website. I built mine and i was looking for some design ideas and your website gave me some. Did you develop the website alone?
He has some good reviews but I dont know anything about fiver or this ad.
Let me know is you know
the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
Thanks for interesting post. This material is very usefull, thanks a lot!!
I was very pleased to search out this particular web-site.I wanted to thanks for your effort for this excellent study!! I ACTUALLY positively loving each little it all and I’ve you saved to look at new information you text.
An attention-grabbing discussion is value comment. I believe that you should write more on this matter, it might not be a taboo topic however usually persons are not sufficient to speak on such topics. To the next. Cheers
This is a very nice blog you have here, I’ll be sure to mention it to some friends of mine
Thanks for the amazing info. I find these posts have a lot of material. I can’t wait to get a moment to impliment all these great thoughts. Thank you very much.
PBS, to its credit, was the only U. S. television network with the guts to do such a show in primetime or anytime. We took a position — a controversial one it turned out — and justified it with research. Other networks preferred to play the doom card over and over again
You are so funny!!! I have become obsessed with your website and I spend most of my days reading all your archives. And I signed up JUST to post comments. I wish I had found out about sooner, and I wish you updated as much as you used to! You must be super busy now though because you are so famous!!
This is a very nice blog you have here, I’ll be sure to mention it to some friends of.
Ain’t the first commenter telling the real truth or what??
Say thank you you looking for an additional exceptional article. In which in addition might any individual pry out that charitable of bumf in that specific way with words.
Wanna buy some cheap and good watches? then replica watches are your best choices, these cheap watches can save you a lot of money, to buy replica watches the best way is to buy watches online, you can find the best replica watches online, there are many fake watches for you to choose, such as replica rolex watches and replica rolex watch, and replica omega watches and replica omega watch and replica cartier watches and replica cartier watch.
I would like to add that in case you do not surely have an insurance policy or maybe you do not form part of any group insurance, you could well make use of seeking assistance from a health insurance agent. Self-employed or those that have medical conditions normally seek the help of any health insurance brokerage service. Thanks for your blog post.
We known that beats dr dre pro sale Online become more and more popular. We are a professional retailer of selling all kinds of beats dr dre studio headphones.
support me to win a semi seo contest. plz visit n leave your comment at my post. thanks.
High Definition Wallpapers websites offer images
in different categories which include celebrity, fine art, digital fine art, nature, animals and
many more choices.High Res Wallpaper websites offer exclusive creations that have been created
keeping in mind the use of images as wallpaper
If jordan top heels atramentous and purple,in Milan jordan for sale, was actually able to acknowledgment to the 80s, again it is actually Donatella Versace – a huge accept design, beaming dye, disco fever, etc. nike jordan with top heels, is the best description. Her family, like her own, never went ahead. Today she showed us a faculty of vertical abatement is still actual abounding band of acid the breeze ambit of clothing , with Gianni accomplished in his time commensurable to the absolute height, but it seems that any admiration to anamnesis the acceptable times accomplished accept been evaporated out. yilai?louis vuitton outlet.
Thanks for interesting post. This material is very usefull, thanks a lot!!
Tonight I want to talk to you on a subject of deep concern to all adidas predator x and to many people in all parts of the world, the war in Vietnam. http://www.soccers-cleats.com/ PZZ
I really love this website! Keep up the great work.
Sexy escort model that will satisfy you absolutely certain you will find classy. services should look with some useful tips u opportunities.
Superb written article, really interesting thanks so much for posting this! Cheers.