Apple and the Future of Publishing — Part Two
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Last time I wrote about the business and technical context into which Apple would be bringing its long-rumored tablet computer, which many of us now believe will also be some form of e-reader. That column stimulated a lot of lively comments, thanks, but now I have to put up or shut up, giving my thoughts on both the still-secret Apple device and the possible content strategy behind it.
I think we’re all fairly sure at this point that Apple will shortly release such a device and that it will be nominally based on the iPhone or iPod Touch. This is key because of the App Store and iPod ecosystems it will leverage. Anything that runs on an iPod Touch will run on the tablet.
Since the tablet is also an e-reader, it has to have both a larger screen and greater battery life so users have a hope of making it all the way to the train platform scene in Anna Karenina. Readers are probably correct, then, that the new Apple will have an e-ink display or equivalent. Current players in this very limited space are e-ink, SiPix, and Kent Displays, so Apple is likely to go with one of those.
But an e-ink display and the iPod Touch (or iPhone) app and content libraries are not enough. Apple has to have unique content for the new device, which is why Cupertino has been talking to traditional publishers and those publishers have been blabbing to each other.
Publishers want to make money. They want to be paid for their content. They may also want to show ads. Most importantly, though, they want a change of platform such that they can reassert control over their intellectual property, which has been for the most part subverted by the Web. The easiest way to do this is through a new file format combined with a new category of content. A tablet edition of the New York Times, for example, would ideally not be easily readable on other devices without paying something to the Times. This is not to say it would be impossible to read the Tablet Times on your Windows PC, but not without first buying the content file. And while viewing on a Windows PC is probably inevitable, don’t expect to read that same file on a Zune, ever.
One interesting way around this problem of getting paid while still reaching for a true mass audience would be to make certain content features usable only with the e-reader. So the basic story might be readable on most any notebook or mobile phone, but to see the accompanying video would require the paid version. This is just a thought, not a prediction.
The best user experience with this new content type would be using the iTablet, which would be supremely portable, silent, power-efficient and easy to read. Bigger and with longer battery life than an iPhone or an iPod Touch, the tablet would be ideal for reading on a train or plane, in the car, during lunch — anywhere you’d read a magazine or book. Heck, hasn’t that always supposed to have been the idea behind an e-reader?
The content has to be somehow better than what can be read on a Kindle. That’s made easy almost out-of-the-box given the iPod Touch software base. Here’s the potential for content that actually does something. I think that’s key. For this device to succeed it has to have a large volume of content that simply does more than you’d generally expect on other platforms. Otherwise why buy the reader?
As I wrote last time I have no inside knowledge of Apple’s plans. But I know Apple as well as anyone and I do have one bit of insight. Two years ago, while shooting interviews at e-ink in Cambridge Massachusetts, we saw what was probably the first demonstration of an e-ink display that was in color and supported full motion video. I am absolutely convinced that display or its equivalent will be at the heart of the new Apple tablet.
Kindle is black and white. Apple is color. Kindle is static. Apple offers animation and video, along with an LED backlight to make colors pop if the lighting is right. Kindle is filled with books, magazines, and newspapers. Apple is filled with books, too, but some of them will be like books in Harry Potter, with animation built into the pages. Apple magazines and newspapers will include animation and video for a new kind of composite publishing format that will be Apple-protected and mainly for sale even if some ads are included. And the Apple device will play music, videos and movies, too. Why not?
It won’t be cheap, not at first, because it doesn’t have to be. I’d look for an introductory price in the $499-699 range for the first million or so units after which the price will start to fall. Content will definitely be available by WiFi, but there’s also the possibility of a Kindle-like cellular connection that could be used by Apple to subvert AT&T’s network exclusivity on the iPhone. This new device will be, after all, a new device, and not necessarily subject to the AT&T exclusive. If there are cellular and non-cellular versions, then the iPhone/Touch analogy is complete.
Questions that remain concern how Apple will defend its new franchise and how the company will be paid for content. Many readers have yearned for a micropayment scheme as the cure for the common newspaper. As a guy who lives by writing I yearn for that, too, but I don’t see it coming, at least not in a form dramatically different from what Apple already has working with iTunes. Sure it is attractive to make (or spend) a penny here and a penny there, but iTunes has already taken most of the friction out of purchasing content, both through one-click buying and (this is vital yet ignored by most pundits) the role of iTunes gift cards to bring online purchasing to tweens. iTunes is an enormous money machine that will be extended to cover as many new types of content as Apple can think of.
How to protect the franchise is a little more complex. Apple will look for exclusive deals wherever it can – exclusives with publishers as well as technology suppliers. The publisher deals are easy since this new content won’t generally play on other mobile devices, though I’m sure you’ll be able to read it all on any iPhone or iPod Touch so Apple can claim an ab initio installed base in the tens of millions of units. I’d expect Apple also to try for a display exclusive of some sort, possibly even acquiring e-ink, which is in the process right now of being acquired by a Taiwanese LCD vendor called PVI.
This e-ink/PVI deal is especially interesting because it was announced back in June as an all-cash deal for $215 million then revised earlier this month throwing-in 120 million preferred PVI shares for the former e-ink investors. This is a huge about-face that instantly doubles the price of the purchase while also giving the former e-ink owners a share in any upside for the business — an upside they obviously expect to enjoy or they wouldn’t have held out for it.
E-ink had, over the years, raised $150 million, so while the investors were being made whole by the original $215 million sale price, their upside wasn’t much. But then the electronic ink business, for all its apparent potential, hasn’t really been that good despite e-ink’s use in both the Sony and Amazon Kindle readers. Four months ago the e-ink investors were thrilled to just get their money back. Then something changed. They just demanded (and got) twice as much money in the form of preferred shares giving them a significant piece of any upside explosion — an explosion they clearly didn’t expect when the original cash deal was negotiated.
The something that happened I believe was Apple’s entry into this market segment. That alone may have been enough. I’m guessing Apple, like it did with Samsung and Flash RAM, made a huge commitment for most — maybe all — of e-ink’s color display production for years to come. Or maybe PVI is simply flipping e-ink to Apple. Only time will tell, but I know in my bones that there is something going on here.
Chances are that Apple’s tablet won’t revolutionize publishing, but for Cupertino it will accomplish more than enough to be a success if it extends the iPhone and iTunes user bases, crushes the AT&T exclusive, and pushes Amazon and Sony to second and third places in the e-reader category. For Steve Jobs the goal is always to change the world, but if that can’t be done then making money and beating the crap out of competitors is almost as good.
I think it will be targeted primarily to gamers. I believe that Apple has emulated the Nintendo monoply marketing of days gone by with great success and now wants a part of growing game market.
You really think E-ink will be in color and display video as early as next year, and somehow amazon didnt see this and cant get this technology also. No I dont think so, my guess is that Jobs doesnt care about E-ink and will make a larger version of the iphone. Most people under the age of 20 can read all day and night on computer screens and wont mind. Thats his target market anyway.
You type with the fingers of a fool…
I agree absolutely — though Mr Cringely may have seen a 30fps, full-color eink screen, he still doesn’t understand the technology behind eink, since he thinks it can have a backlight. Eink is physically unable to have a backlight, Bob; at best it can have a frontlight — and both video-refresh rates and a frontlight will kill the battery life you think is vital. Bob also forgot to include PixelQi and Mirasol as among the new potential screen technologies.
The basic error Bob shows here is taking on this side business of ‘oh yeah, maybe our music and video and games platform could do text, too, like magazines’ and thinking that newspapers, books and magazines are the core and basis of the device. That’s the tail wagging the dog, Bob.
And why should I pay for the New York Times on this tablet when it includes Wifi and mobile Safari and I can just surf to the NY Times website and read it for free? This move would need to coincide with a drastic cutback — even elimination — of the Times on the web free content. Maybe they’ll go there and make it work this time, but they tried it before, and it didn’t work.
You aim for the fences, and you strike out a lot. This column was a whiffer as far as I can see.
I agree. The cash cow of iTunes right now is games. If you just use a high quality LCD then all of that game content as well as the e-Reader content is immediately available for the iTablet. And that would make the Kindle seem rather stone age by comparison.
I also agree that everyone below a certain age doesn’t care about looking at a backlit LCD all day.
Interesting story, especially the part on Apple using color e-ink displays.
To feed this ‘rumor’ I’d like to add the following:
One thing I did not quite grasp when announcing the latest iPod-Touch back in spetember was that these things did not have an OLED display. These things are superior to the current generation of lcd displays, and as Apple sometimes tends to get blinded by superior technology I was quite sure they’d move to OLED.
One reason might be that Apple wanted to keep the price of the Touch below the $200 range, and I may buy that. Another way to put it though is that Apple will skip OLED screens alltogether and moves directly to e-ink color screens.
Energy efficient color screens; now that is something to get blinded for! And within a year to be deployed in both the iPod and iTablet hardware range…..
One of the interesting thing that the iTunes app store has done is prove that a micropayment system for apps (and maybe other stuff) can work. I am much more willing to pay for an app to try when it is a buck or two than when it is a $20 app on a mac. (Some) developers who write compelling apps for the iphone/ipod touch are doing pretty well. Maybe that can work for content providers as well, provided they give us compelling multimedia material. Maybe the ecosystem for this type of content can include the iphone and a mac somehow. This can provide great initial markets for the material and support great content for the iTablet.
I still think that the iTablet should be and probably will be EXACTLY like the iPhone – except with a bigger display. The iPhone is the best human-to-technology device available today.
I’m still thinking OLED would be a better display than e-Ink. I’m betting the iTablet will have an OLED display no bigger than 9 inches by 12 inches and no smaller than 6 inches by 8 inches.
It will be exactly as thick as an iPhone.
I think I just figured out why there may be a problem with a tablet product:
Circulation figures:
1 AARP The Magazine 23,434,052
2 Reader’s Digest 10,094,281
3 Better Homes And Gardens 7,638,912
4 National Geographic 5,071,134
5 Good Housekeeping 4,741,353
6 Ladies’ Home Journal 4,169,444
7 Time 4,066,545
8 Woman’s Day 4,027,113
9 Family Circle 3,953,651
10 People 3,750,548
Of those though, 2/3 are sold to doctors offices, hair dressers and people at the check-out at the grocery store (right next to iTunes gift cards
so they don’t really count as much…
Maybe this is the target audience?
Rank Newspaper Circulation
1. USA Today (Arlington, Va.) 2,528,437
2. Wall Street Journal (New York, N.Y.) 2,058,342
3. Times (New York, N.Y.) 1,683,855
4. Times (Los Angeles) 1,231,318
5. Post (Washington, DC) 960,684
6. Tribune (Chicago) 957,212
7. Daily News (New York, N.Y.) 795,153
8. Inquirer (Philadelphia) 705,965
9. Post/Rocky Mountain News (Denver) 704,806
10. Chronicle (Houston) 692,557
Publishers are paid for the expensive process of producing the copies from the source of the material. Well, that process isn’t expensive anymore, so there’s no need to pay anyone for that. This business model will cease to be viable, and that’s that.
When people figure out what is still hard, they’ll make viable business model around it. Maybe they’ll even retain the name “publisher” for this new business model, if it happens that a publisher makes that leap.
As I understand it, the problem with e-ink is the slow refresh rate, which makes it unsuitable, or at least, undesirable, for interactive and rich media applications. It’s fine for the dead tree-to-mostly static pixel transition for ebooks and emagazines, but that hardly seems compelling for the iPhone app user, who is used to something whizzier. So, it seems that the ebook>app divide will persist, or if not, what is so compelling about e-ink on this platform, other than energy consumption?
You neglected to notice and/or mention the new authoring tools Apple has produced and made available for the “album experience”.
Sounds like that might be nicely repurposed for the kind of IP you discuss here…
Maybe I’m just dense . . . but I don’t see a (yes “A”) killer app in all this, and without a killer app you don’t have a killer product. I’m not saying there isn’t one, and I’m not saying that Steve Jobs hasn’t thought of one . . . it’s just that I don’t have a clue, if there is one, what it might be. Cringely hasn’t offered one either . . .
Well, what’s the one “killer app” for the iPhone? The lack of one doesn’t seem to have hurt it….
The killer app for the i-phone is the app-store. Without that it would not even have the relatively small smartphone share it presently enjoys.
The iPhone isn’t really another iPod, because it doesn’t have a really killer app. Maybe with the GPS chip it can do some “presence and location” app tricks . . .
The iPod’s killer app was legal downloadable music.
The Blackberry’s killer app was mobile email.
I can’t see an existing paper book, say like Harry Potter ported to the tablet, being a killer app. And I can’t imagine content released exclusively for the tablet being a killer app either. I mean then kind of content that justifies the purchase of the device all on it’s own.
The killer app for the iPhone was “an ipod, a phone, an internet communicator” … “are you getting it?”
I agree though. As much as I WANT a tablet, I can’t figure the killer app much beyond having it in my hands. The laptop screen stays propped up while I read it in my lap or watch it in my bed… It just works.
I still yearn for a game changer.
I’m not convinced…am I one of a few that notices the racks of paperbacks, newspapers,
magazines, journals and hardbound books in innumerable outlets? Walk into almost any
drugstore, supermarket, mass/discount retailer, even quickie-marts and you’ll find print
materials on paper. Maybe someday in the far off future, when we have those neat glasses
with the built-in display screens, and can connect inexpensively to the net, pick and choose
via “virtual, in air” displays…but not in the next few years.
The other thing is what is to keep any competitor, not just Apple, Sony, Microsoft, et al
ad nauseum, from bringing something like this to market? It seems to me to be just a
glorified netbook…which can be used to read newspapers now.
OIC…it’s the Apple fanboix “wow, look what my ‘iXXX (insert fav gadget name here) can do”
<{;-)
Francis…
You are correct. There is no killer app for the iTablet or the iPhone.
But, somwhere between the ruler app, flashlight app, movie player app and 200,000 other apps, the iPhone has become a compelling almost necessary device. It has almost replaced every thing in my pockets and briefcase. In a couple of years it may replace everything i carried with me a few years ago.
You are correct… watch, credit card, car keys, money, drivers license, passport, id badge, medical records, etc are not killer apps. But I very much like the iPhone form-factor as opposed to the other hundreds of form factors.
A killer app should make you purchase the product for just that reason – a priori. Lotus 123 launched the personal computer into the mainstream. Of course once people had one they played games and printed greeting cards and other stuff too.
Wrong Bob. Jobs doesn’t like ebook readers. It’s too much of a niche product, and as you say he wants to change the world. Or in business parlance — go for the largest markets, not the smallest. And that market is — drum roll, please — games!
The target market for Apple is young adults. And the missing component in the iPod product line is a quality game machine. Also video. But definitely NOT ebooks. Say good bye to that other Microsoft copycat crap… x box.
Maybe Steve’s Change the World attempt with this is learning and instructional content and access. I work in a district of 5500 students, just under 400 staff and we spend $500,000 annually on textbooks alone and nearly another $200,000 on other content including Saas Subscriptions, online content search tools, video streaming, instructional software, etc… Plus our “Microsoft tax” is almost $100,000 for Windows desktop, client & server licensing, Citrix, etc.
If we had $$ for Computers and were on a 5 yr replacement cycle (we’re nowhere near that though several similar districts to ours were on 3-5 yr HW replacement cycles prior to the economy tanking) we would spend $200,000 annually on desktop hardware alone.
We would spend $1,000,000 annually or about $170 per K-12 student and teacher
Apple offers us tablet devices, a complete collection of content of all sorts that requires very little IT staff to support for $150/ year per student and teacher, each and every year.
For $885,000($115,000) annually, we go from 1400 computers to a 1:1 environment. EVERY Student can access the web and a complete collection of electronic “texts” complete with multimedia content, 21st century tools, the ability to learn online and collaborate beyond their classroom, school and district. All for just over $100,000 less than we are spending now. We’re in. Right now. Sign up 10% of US schools year one for revenues in the billions. Change the world of K-12 education and change the world; I would bet the Steve’s in, right now. And then there is Higher Ed and adult ed and casual learning and social networking etc, etc.
I truly hope what you propose will happen. I’ve heard that when the One Laptop Per Child project first started, Mr. Jobs supposedly offered to supply them with OS X for FREE, but Mr. Negroponte rejected the idea. For better or worse, Apple now had time to develop a the whole package, a product completely in-house. I’ve used the OLPC netbook through the G1G1 campaign, and I’ve seen how quickly people young and old take to the iPhone. I really hope Apple get the timing, the device, the software, and the pricing just right. Forget about e-ink. Forget about publishers’ business ideas. This is about truly spreading digital information access, improving education, saving public spending, and making a buck all at the same time.
deanston has struck upon a grain of truth I think…One thing that motivates Steve Jobs is kicking the butt of the guy who told him ‘No’. The iTablet could very well be an education-targeted device that will also be available to the general public. A couple of hundred for the device and another couple of hundred per year for a content package (and, oh, by the way, you can also have access to anything on iTunes) would make a nice tidy little revenue stream, way bigger than Apple ever had when they had a real education VAR program.
As for e-Ink versus OLED vs LCD, it depend on what brings the price point to the right level. I would question e-Ink’s response rate, but I haven’t seen any of their skunkworks designs.
I would look for the device to be roughly Kindle-sized, or 4-6 times the screen real estate as an iPhone. Something like a 150mm x 200mm or 600x800pi form factor.
Great article Bob.
Whatever the iTablet will become I know it is NOT going to be just like the iPhone or iTouch. I mean come on … this is STEVE JOBS we are talking about.
The iTablet will change publishing like the iPhone did with cellphones and the iPod did with the music industry.
It is the least I would expect from the Jobs-led-APPLE and the near-unlimited dollars, resources and IQ at their disposal.
I can’t wait to see how it all pans-out.
I think that the key here is the ITunes Store. The iPhone, the iPod Touch, iTablet or whatever we will call it will be just that – a vehicle for the iTunes Store. I remember in yonder days when Palm burst out on the market and they had hundreds if not thousands of apps. Yes, most of them were just clocks and reminders but the big problem was… there was not a single place that sold all of them. So you had to go out and hunt them down, then there were different price points depending on the website, and these apps on the top of that were mostly in low teens range for price. Far too much to pay for something that was green and black. I think that if they keep the price low and content varied, this will be a killer product.
Do you think there is any chance he can get school books on this thing. Along with the link to the Author and the lecture that went with it. (cash stream for updated lectures?) It drives me nuts that my kids carry around school books in the 21 century and actually get back problems from this. They carry more books than I ever did and I came along long before PC’s. I manage to get through college without a computer of any kind. Yes I even know what IBM punch cards are.
I send at least $500 on school books a year. I know everything a person needs to know will fit on a lap top from years ago.
I believe there is a tremendous market here where books could be eliminated publishers still get their money and Steve gets his money and my kids get the back pain to go away. And Apple gets back in school again. Maybe this time it will work.
Please ask Steve please get the books out of my school. Now is a good time. I will gladly pay.
Also text to speech is really, really important for my son who has reading issues. There is a tremendous market hear also. I know Apple can do better than what is out there now.
Apple is not really an innovator so I am afraid the iTablet won’t be any new type of publishing, gaming or educational device. What Apple does best is identify technology with lots of growth potential, re-design it and make it a lot more user-friendly and appealing than what was available before they entered the market. So what is high growth, has huge upside potential at this point and is poorly implemented elsewhere at this point? Netbooks and web distribution for portable devices of all sorts of media, starting with music and video.
So here’s my prediction what the iTablet will be: a multimedia device, similar to the net-books, but without the keyboard, using the touch interface, adding a lot more local storage. It will be great for viewing videos, photos, or any other media published on the web today. Some of it will be downloaded from the extended iTunes store, somt from the web. Some will be paid for upon download, others will have embedded ads. Google may become a partner and share some of the advertising revenue. So it won’t be anything revolutionary, but it will be superbly designed and eminently usable. And it will leverage the existing Apple products and distribution infrastructure adding a few revenue-generating alliances at the same time. No e-ink interface, it is just too limiting for multimedia at this point. It may have a TV tuner, although it may come in a later release. Apple is known for milking a product line by gradually adding in later releases what could already be there from day one.
So were you able to scratch those hemorrhoids while pulling this out of your arse?
[...] Apple Tablet would quickly take over the e-reader market. (I, Cringley [...]
One Question: Would you publish your own writing on this?
Occam’s Razor [OR} tells us the simplest path is likely true.
Here’s the iPad’s OR ….
It is said there’s a void between laptops & iPods.
That is false.
There are netbooks.
Look around you.
How many Kindle 2s do you see?
OK — now how many iPods do you see?
No one will carry around a tablet-size device, no matter *how* cool it is.
An Apple $3/400 9/10-inch laptop.
Now *that’d* rock!
And the statement: “Apple can’t make good sub-$500 computers.”, on it’s face, makes zero sense.
“Media Lounging”, if you will, is done with the iTouch.
There will be no iPad.
“My First Mac”, anyone?
Bill Keller of the The New York Times outs the Apple Slate,
http://gawker.com/5389636/bill-keller-apple-tablet-impending
Really useful idea. I am very glad to read this site. Thanks for giving us informative articles.
The Apple Tablet will happen; and that right soon. I don’t think reading will be how the unit will marketed, however — first, it sounds boring. It isn’t obviously, but to many it sounds so. Sad, but so. — secondly, Steve has said on several occasions that people don’t read anymore… of course, we all know he was zigging when we hoped he’d zag, buying time to get this to market, throwing people off the scent with “no reading, bah!” I think it’ll ONE of the things that’ll get great mention.
Steve has publicly dissed the Kindle for being a dedicated reader, a sort of 1-Trick Pony… I came up with a tag line that I wish we’d see… “The Apple Table. The 100,000-Trick Pony.”
I think Apple will certainly play up the video playback which they’ll make sure looks stunning. But in the end of the day, they’ll question anyone weighing the option of something else by Amazon or Sony or Fusion Garage with “Why buy that when you can get ours? It does EVERYTHING.”
As far as publishing, I think there’s a humongous market there. Content is everything. People actually like buying premium, but they want to make damn sure they’re getting more for their money. Blu-ray for instance. I used to balk on Blu-ray. Took expensive and I couldn’t rip (Hand Brake) a movie for my digital players. Nowadays, the trend is to (A) drop the price a bit and (B) Off the Blu-ray movie disc; the Blu-ray supplemental disc; a regular DVD movie disc and a disc with a digital copy for iPods, etc. Wow! 4 discs — so much more freedom. Play the hi-rez version on the Home system… take the DVD version in the car player for trips and copy the digital copy to your favorite portable device. Truly a WIN-WIN.
This is what the publishing companies must understand. Their digital versions much include special content and the ability to access other data as well that’s linked to the web. Why is wikipedia so poplular? Because everything is connected. The magazines could do this too. And should. Pinch and zoom photos. Lots more photos than the magazine on the rack. Swimsuit issues that come to life. Newspapers will also gain so much from this with people getting subscriptions to cities that normally couldn’t be delivered so far. Perhaps someone has moved from a city that they loved and want to feel connected by getting the paper even though they had to move far away. People will do this type of stuff and the money will add up fast.
Lastly, this is a must for publishing because I’m sick of throwing away great magazines that I really didn’t read all the way simply because the next issue comes in. Weekly magazines — I have two — and there’s lots of stuff to read and finally when the stack near the commode is about a foot tall, you have to throw stuff out! Hate it. A reader solves this. Back up all your issues and throw nothing away. The ability to do a search and have the reader bring back all the relevant stories and even the option of buying a back issue if you needed to — brings old content back to life. Many publications (perhaps Playboy and the lack) will have NO TROUBLE in having an audience that would want every back issue ever. Billions will be made over the years in people buying what was once thought of as long and gone. Think of how TV shows now can be bought — every single episode in a nice box. Seinfeld was on for 9 or 10 years and I own every episode … the same can be for any magazine that has the content that holds up. EW-type stuff, I don’t think will have that type of staying power, but a cult-type magazine will MAD most certainly will.
Can’t wait!
[...] For the record, I’m going to say it does have a front facing camera. The facial recognition rumors would make sense given what they’ve been experimenting with it in iPhoto. And I’m guessing that the display is a color eInk display, one that can display video. They may even own eInk at this point, and may make an announcement to that effect tomorrow (idea shamelessly stolen from Cringely). [...]
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K12 education is the best. Everyone should look out for it.,`:
K12 education is always the best;-”
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