Is Blu-Ray a Failure?
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There was a minor flap in tech news last week when the CEO of Activision, a huge video game company, called on Sony to drop the price of its PlayStation 3 game console, suggesting that if Sony didn’t follow this advice Activision would consider withdrawing support for the game platform altogether. I hardly expect Activision to withdraw its PS3 support, nor do I expect Sony to dramatically reduce the price of systems that have already effectively dropped 20 percent or more in Sony’s top market, the U.S., because of the weak dollar. To the astonishment of hard-core gamers, in fact, I’d suggest that this little drama has nothing to do with game sales or games at all, but is instead directed at the Blu-Ray optical disk drive inside every PS3. The dude from Activision, sensing blood in the water, is trying to look like a shark, for there is growing sentiment in the industry that Blu-Ray, as it was originally intended, is a failure.
How can that be? Wasn’t it just a year ago that Blu-Ray, with its greater data capacity, triumphed over the opposing HD-DVD standard? Well promises were made to achieve that victory and now it appears promises may have been broken.
Understand that the success or failure of Blu-Ray has little to do with games and everything to do with movies. Two historical events informed the battle between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. First was the epic and costly 1980‘s competition between the BetaMax and VHS tape cassette standards. Second was the triumphant succession of DVD over VHS, when we all replaced our tape libraries with disks, gladly paying anew for what we already owned, buying every Hollywood exec a new Mercedes in the process.
Re-fighting the battle between BetaMax and VHS was something the industry wanted to avoid when it came to an emerging HD video standard, There had been for a moment such a potential conflict for DVD but the opposing forces were brought to a compromise by the movie studios, themselves, and a single technical standard emerged, pumping billions into the movie business as a result. That’s the same goal that all sides had in the HD video fight — to get it over with quickly and get us all replacing our video libraries with HD.
According to Hollywood insiders who speak with me, the HD video battle was again decided by the studios when Disney and 20th Century Fox went with Blu-Ray in 2008. The leader in that decision was reportedly Disney, which had 35 animated classic films it envisioned bringing to market in a data rich format with lots of extra material — so much material and games that HD-DVD, with its lower capacity, couldn’t hold it all on a single disk. So it was Blu-Ray’s greater capacity that swayed Disney, along with Sony’s promise that the rampant success of PS3 game machines would quickly put Blu-Ray drives in most American living rooms.
The Disney fantasy was that Blu-Ray would triumph, PS3s would be everywhere, and American families would, all over again, buy enhanced copies of the 35 animated classics, sending up to $7 billion to Disney.
Well so far it hasn’t happened.
Yes, there are millions of PS3s in use, but millions more xBox360s and Nintendo Wii’s. PlayStation 3 is the third-best-selling next-gen game console — third out of three, which is the wrong place to be for any competing tech standard that hopes to dominate. Game consoles that have already been on the market for a year or more don’t suddenly win from behind like Seabiscuit. Sony sells more PS2s still than PS3s. PS3 was a year late to market, had supply problems, fewer game titles, and those titles usually cost a bit more than on other platforms. But what really killed it for the movie studios was something completely different and unanticipated — the need for an HDTV to go with each PS3 Blu-Ray player.
Both the VCR and DVD revolutions required that just a single revolutionary (in the case of DVD, evolutionary) product be successful. Your TV remained the same. You can play a DVD on a DuMont black & white TV set from 1956, but Blu-Ray — unless you are not taking advantage of any of its, well, advantages — requires a whole new TV. The chances of people buying simultaneously an HDTV AND a PS3 were lower and so was the dual penetration with the result that Blu-Ray disk sales, while not terrible, are also not material, yet, to the movie industry. And the question now is whether they ever will be material?
Blu-Ray will survive, but will it be just for cinephiles? That depends on how the 1080p download market evolves (which is why Apple has yet to sell a computer with a Blu-Ray disk installed, seeing it as eventual channel conflict with iTunes) or whether a new HD-DVD standard will emerge to compete again with Blu-Ray.
And don’t forget the impact of up-converting progressive-scan DVD players, which even Sony sells: I just bought one for $44.77 at Wal-Mart and driving the 720p display in my RV makes a standard-definition DVD of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory look amazingly good. Not good enough for a cinephile, but that’s five percent of the video market, tops.
Yes, Blu-Ray is better, but for many people the incentives aren’t there, which leaves us still looking for a higher-density data standard that ideally costs less than Blu-Ray. That particular need, especially in the PC industry, never went away.
This alternate standard is coming, I’m sure, and don’t be surprised if it turns out to be pretty much the same HD-DVD that lost-out a year ago, though this time probably not under the Toshiba brand. It would make a superior archival platform and might even be used for HD video, too. Retooling a factory to stamp HD-DVDs costs millions less than upgrading to Blu-Ray and the eventual disks are significantly cheaper.
But that The Making of Bambi featurette may have to go.
When my wife first fell pregnant we decided to get online and try to research as much as possible so we knew what was going to happen. There were plenty of decent sources of information, however if you are in australia we don’t think anything can compete with bubhub for the sheer amount of information all in one place.
HD-DVD can’t handle vast amount of data?
a double-layered DVD can hold up to 18GB… most Blu-ray games for PS3 are similar size.
HD-DVD could hold 30GB of data and i bet it could hold even more in future… which is just fine for a Disney movie or any other movie people are playing in their homes. I realy don’t care if the pictures are even more extra sharp, if i must pay 1000 bucks for a decent Blu-ray + TV “media center” ?
I’m sticking with DVDs
p.s.: and yes, blu-ray can hold more data… but the question is: how much detrimental is this? How much can a human eye notice regarding image sharpness ? Just a question…because,let’s say that the iPhone XY could have 600 pixels per sq.inch…the thing is, human eye can notice only 350 pixels per sq. inch (or something like that). So that’s the point of my questions and im interested in your opinion.
thanks man
bubhub: and because your nickname has the same name (you own the site?), you just happen to come by the mentioned page and you decided to tell us ,huh? Conflict of interests anyone?
I think Bluray is a success. The retail power of sony will see to it.
This is great news! Looking forward to see more.
yeah I coulda wrote that better.. lol jk! I was really impressed with your blog and I must say, you are a pretty good writer my friend.
Hell is a half-filled auditorium. Robert Frost (1874-1963) http://onnaturemagazine.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=133044
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There is obviously a lot to know about this. I think you made some good points in Features also.cheers.
nice post Tong
I remember when the Bluray was still being introduced in the market, they say it will be difficult to pirate…But now, I can see a lot of pirated copies everywhere…
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I’ve got a great deal of memories on VCR tapes which i want to change to DVD, exactly how tricky is it?
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I remember when the Bluray was still being introduced in the market, they say it will be difficult to pirate…But now, I can see a lot of pirated copies everywhere.
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Blu Ray is definitely not a failure. It’s part of history!
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Southern Rural News reported on September 7: Lin Lu Yi did not think that he will petition to pay such a heavy price. More than a year, he lost not only endured the paul smith sale uk paul smith sale uk w pain of the left leg of the body, as reflected by the delay did not solve the problem, leaving him doubly inner torment.
9 2, Lufeng City, Guangdong Province in East China Sea in the town of Yan Chau Wai Loon on the home team herve leger strapless dresses, Lin Lu Yi told the Southern Rural News reporter:
That indignity occurred in May 28, 2009 (hereinafter referred to as 11 points that night on his way home drove into the forest land Lufeng City Arts building of the East China Sea town road, a motorcycle carrying a man and woman suddenly stopped in front of his car. Emergency brake, Lin Lu Yi off to prepare to see what happens. At this point lady ugg boots, trailing behind a van to another. 6,7 The man jumped from the car, hand knife, pipe, shotgun, etc. rushed over towards him. Lu Yi Lin feel bad started to run, but was soon to catch up. A group of people will cut him up, after play, walk away.
down in a pool of blood Lin Lu Yi was then taken to a local hospital, then transferred to Guangzhou because of his injuries Naval Hospital. Lufeng Municipal Public Security Bureau issued a necrosis.
2010 年 5 16, The main suspects Lin Ruize Lufeng Municipal Public Security Bureau was arrested. Subsequently, the investigators informed Lin Lu Yi, after a preliminary hearing, Lin Ruize has confessed that he and several other people the same day is subject to monthly Chau Wai team with paul smith suits p Lin Mei boil money employed asics tiger sale, for Lin Mei Cuan land of the villagers.
Lin Lu Yi and Lin Mei boil of resentment began in March 2008. The time, as long suspected group on Chau Wai Lin Mei boil private sale of collective land, Lin Lu Yi, who began to petition the relevant departments. paul smith suits paul smith suits h
Villagers Linbao deep to the south rural newspaper reporter introduced in January Chau Wai team Lin Mei Cuan He recalled the 1999 election, Lin Mei boil begins with dozens of other villages called
2008 March, Lu Yi Lin Lin Mei, who boil on suspicion of collective sale of private land to the East China Sea town of discipline problems began, land agencies. According to the villagers master the figures, from 2001 to 2008, Lin Mei boil unauthorized reselling a total of eight village collective land, with a total area of #8203;#8203;2000 square meters of land were by the village for the villagers to buy homestead, while their land was not included in the Village group’s collective income.
petition materials submitted 4 months later, the East China Sea town, village authorities did not give any reply, the villagers did not reflect the problem investigation. July 15, 2008, the mayor received on the use of the opportunity, Lin Lu Yi Lufeng Municipal Government and others to submit petitions directly to the material. Four days later, the East China Sea town sent a work team to investigate on Chau Wai Lin Mei boil for illegal sale of land issues.
four days after completion of the investigation, together with Lu Yi Lin brother Lin petition of residential land use has been shot.
2008 年 7 月 22 am, a man sleep with forest land was Lights up, the forest land scattered with broken glass windows found in the room, aluminum window frames have also been deformed. Through the broken window, he saw Lane close to paul smith sale uk s home, the two shadows are moving fast to distance. According to the damage to window frames, forest land use to determine that someone with gunpowder gun fire towards the windows of his house. Subsequently, the Lufeng Municipal Public Security Bureau in this investigation the shooting, but the case has not yet been solved.
town because of dissatisfaction with the working group’s survey, Lin Lu Yi, who once again petition to the Shanwei city departments. Soon, another accident occurred in the petitioners Lin Lu Yi’s body.
2009 年 2 22, get money back from the bank of forest land art, land in the East through the hotel suddenly being thrown around from behind. Then, several people came up to beat him. He had just taken out of the twenty thousand yuan in cash was looted.
Lin Lu Yi that the petitioners in this case with their activities of a causal relationship. Angry he decided to report in the end, so he and a few people will report materials sent to the National Land Agency of Guangdong Province. Subsequently, the May 28, 2009, Lin Lu Yi was chopped on his way home, and the left leg led to amputation.
since Gege Lin Lu Yi after the accident, forest land use to put down the work at hand, will concentrate on all urged to take care of his brother and on the detection of cases. May 31, 2010, forest land around the Village with the Island on the case of illegal land sales and bloody brother suffered through the network real name petition to the Bureau of Guangdong Province.
happened that morning, a province of the provincial leadership went to the Complaints Bureau Online liberating. Forest land use petition in pieces, the provincial leaders immediately given instructions: > Lufeng, deputy secretary Li Xili September 4 on the phone told the Southern Rural News correspondent, was chopped Lu Yi Lin’s case, Lufeng City Public Security Bureau has established a committee, is stepping up its investigation of other suspects and arrested catch. The team leader for the month Chau Wai Lin Mei boil private sale of land issues, the town of Lufeng City Commission for Discipline Inspection and the East China Sea has again sent a working group to investigate. positions, but due to the removal process is very cumbersome, and next year will general, removal of the matter will be set aside. He said that in recent months, the village meeting, Lin Mei Cuan has not participated, . Li Xili said that as the main suspect, the team leader on Chau Wai Lin Mei boil now online pursuit by the police as an object.
is awaiting the findings of Lin Lu Yi told the Southern Rural News correspondent, although he lost half a leg, but does not regret to report Lin Mei boil.
However, This is often not only can not bring down the other side, but in exchange for revenge and his crazy pain. (Source: Southern Rural News)
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