Wall Street Can’t Count
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This post first ran on January 29th on my mortgage blog. It got some traction there and a few mentions in the press so, lazy bastard that I am, I’m reproducing it here in a slightly improved form that corrects my own math error.
Take a look at this chart that someone sent to me a couple days ago. I’m making it big so you can see as much detail as possible. Have a look and then come back, okay?
Pretty scary, eh? It’s a chart showing the deterioration of major bank market caps since 2007. Prepared by someone at JP Morgan based on data from Bloomberg, this chart flashed across Wall Street and the financial world a few days ago, filling thousands of e-mail in boxes. Putting a face on the current banking crisis it really brought home to many people on Wall Street the critical position the financial industry finds itself in.
Too bad the chart is wrong.
It’s a simple error, really. The bubbles are two-dimensional so they imply that the way to see change is by comparing AREAS of the bubbles. But if you look at the numbers themselves you can see that’s not the case.
Take CitiGroup, for example. The CITI market cap dropped from $255 billion to $19 billion — a difference of 13.4X. If we’re really comparing the areas of the bubbles, that means 13.4 of those tiny CitiGroup-of-today bubbles should precisely fill the big CitiGroup-of-the-good-old-days bubble. Only they won’t. As a matter of fact it would take about 13.4 times as many little bubbles to fill the big bubble as the chart preparer thought or 179.64 little bubbles. Pi r squared, remember? This is because the intended comparison wasn’t two-dimensional but one-dimensional — the chart maker was intending we compare the DIAMETERS of the bubbles, not their areas.
So it’s a typo: no big deal, right? Yeah, but what a typo! It got past Bloomberg and JP Morgan and pretty much all of Wall Street before someone said, “Hey, this makes no sense!”
And who was that someone? Me! A nobody. Or at least someone unimportant enough not to be asking for a Federal bailout.
How could this be? It’s because Wall Street doesn’t work the way we think it does — the way we are led to believe it does. Wall Street is a marketplace, a selling ground where everything from ideas to stocks and bonds are on sale every day. And there is nobody easier to sell to than a salesman. Come up with a good chart that’s ALMOST within an order of magnitude of reality, put a disclaimer on the bottom, and let ‘er rip.
No wonder we’re in a global financial crisis.
The people we count on to understand what’s going on can’t even read a chart.
Too funny! Congrats, Bob.
Indeed interesting. Saw this graph as well a few weeks ago, and was wishing it had been portrayed in a more useful “dartboard” format.
There is some very good material on this type of mistake in, well, almost everything Edward Tufte has ever published, and it’s clear this type of error is endemic, not simply restricted to Wall Street or to Banking. For a general overview of errors, still obviously relevant though the examples are a little dated, try “The Visual Display of Quantitative Information”. Tufte’s more recent “Beautiful Evidence” contains the essay “The Cognitive Style of Powerpoint” with a section on how erroneous presentation of data led to incorrect decision making at NASA during the ill-fated Challenger mission. I suppose the point is that “people everywhere” which is to say “we” have become too sloppy in both our production and consumption of quantitative data, and it is just this sloppiness which can allow such a widespread failure of common sense as the financial crisis to happen (imho).
I can claim to be as smart as Bob today.
When I saw this first, I was wondering how come the big blue circle for Citibank is ‘255′ but the small one is ‘19′.. A couple of seconds and it struck that they are comparing diameters not lengths..Wondered why did not use simple bar-charts…
but then..i am just a mobile engineer..not some money-savvy chart-making financial advisor.
@samir: same thing here!
I am launching a startup in the mobile web space, are you looking for a job?
Here is something similar for the media –
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/beijing/blog/fourth_place_medal/post/The-great-Atlantic-Ocean-swimming-hoax?urn=oly,140525
This goes beyond the banks and beyond salesmen. People just don’t check stuff anymore. Part of the reason is that the penalty for being wrong is minimal.
and the penalty for being correct is exile.
Well, it’s an easy answer. No one actually reads the numbers. That’s the point of the chart, to convey the (relative) numbers.
But you’d think some bored fella would’ve caught it before Bob.
It would be nice if the graph was actually large (some of us have screens better than 800×600) and perhaps even clickable. On my screen they are ovals not even circles!
A second fallacy is that the market cap is the value of the company. It is not – it is simply the price of the last transaction. Arguably there aren’t any people who want to sell for less than that last transaction because they would have, so that is the lowest price anyone is prepared to sell for. All the remaining shareholders would sell for more. If for example on average they were prepared to sell for twice that price then the actual company value is double the market cap. When people are forced to sell (eg due to economic difficulties) then the market cap and company value can diverge greatly.
Cringely FTW! This is just another example of the incompetence that has been allowed in the banking system.
I guess I was bored: http://jag.dreamhost.com/Banks%20Market%20Cap.png
Hah, I ways going to do the same thing!
But thank you.
>>>
Simon says: February 12, 2009 at 11:08 pm
This goes beyond the banks and beyond salesmen. People just don’t check stuff anymore. Part of the reason is that the penalty for being wrong is minimal.
<<<
But the penalty for being late in the “I want it yesterday” culture (or at least we’ve got to get it out before our competitors do) is the sack. As they say you can have it Good, Cheap, or Fast – any two. Guess which they pick!
As an aside that demonstrates this I found a problem in the way my Sony Ericsson phone handled music output at the same time as being connected to a bluetooth headset. I spent about an hour running some tests and diagnosed the problem which was recreatable every time. Not a show stopper, but easily fixed with a firmware update. When I called their helpline I was treated as a major inconvenience. Part of my job is Semiconductor verification and debug so I would like to think I was reasonably capable of offering them a fairly coherent bug report, but they were just completely uninterested. Not only no penalty for being wrong, but specific dis-interest in putting it right too.
Paul
Cringely! I like your column but this is self aggrandizing toss. The people that created this mess, quite to the contrary, are some of the best mathematicians that our (or, more precisely, the French) educational system has to offer. The real problem actually started in Scotland a couple hundred years ago when people came up with the bright idea that human behaviour can actually be quantified statistically – apparently, this idea has some minor flaws. The people on Wall Street are not stupid – arrogant maybe – but not stupid. Anyone on Wall Street smart enough to figure this chart out is so busy right now that they barely have time to sleep, much less to take time to comment on some silly chart created by a knuckle dragger.
The original misleading chart is probably not a mistake. The author (J.P.Morgan) comes out looking very good that way …
[...] Cringley points out that Wall Street types appear not to understand math. [...]
You make a good catch, but actually, it is more likely that a “nobody,” as you call yourself, would be the one to find this. This is not actionable material to Wall Street. Why would they bother correcting it? It is a novelty.
Your conclusion “The people we count on to understand what’s going on can’t even read a chart”.is not supported by the facts you present. First, you provided no evidence that the chart is widely misunderstood by Wall Street. And, even if you were just joking, such comments are the ones that the masses regurgitate regularly and begin to believe.
Yet, I give you really high marks for being one of the few to point out that Wall Street is about selling. They are a necessary cog in the wheel that distributes capital. Those firms all make vastly more money from fees than investing their own capital. Understanding this makes Wall Street’s actions make more sense and lead us from the false sense that many have that Wall Street is going to provide reliable investment advice. That is really not their role.
This chart flashed around Wall Street like an Internet joke. I got it from three separate sources and I’m hardly in the loop there. And none of those three messages, with their copied comments in each case from half a dozen firms along the path, mentioned the error. In MY world, which is the world that matters to me and is remarkably similar to the worlds of most I, Cringely readers, THAT is evidence of an inability to read the chart, which concerns me greatly. The fact that it doesn’t seem to concern YOU concerns me, too.
It seems you are just in too much of a hurry to prove your point. Your explanation is evidence of a lack of attention to detail, not evidence of inability.
As for your overall judgment of the industry, it seems hasty. Regardless of the magnitude of the differential of the areas being inaccurate, didn’t the chart really communicate the issue that the market caps were significantly lower? If you had asked those who failed to catch the error to rely on the chart to make an investment decision or prove a point in their presentation, I do not doubt that there would be an increased attention to detail that would reveal the error.
What you expose is your own excessive eagerness to oversimplify the financial industry and take a shot at it. The industry deserves much criticism, but blanket accusations of stupidity are neither credible nor useful.
Your point could be well made that a lack of attention to detail could likely have played a significant role in lax decision-making. But in the end, there are many players way ahead of Wall Street to blame: 1. credit reporting agencies who gave AAA ratings to mortgage pools, 2. loan originators who fraudulently approved loans that they did not think the borrowers could afford, 3. mortgage brokers who fraudulently encouraged borrowers to ignore rules and income-ratio requirements, 4. appraisers who fraudulently provided inflated appraisals to justify amounts borrowed, and 5. the borrowers who fraudulently misstated their incomes.
How does it make sense to blame Wall Street? Should WS be responsible for the success of every product, idea or venture for which they make capital available. Do you expect a system whereby if Wall Street funds it, it’s guaranteed to be profitable and without fraud? That is not how our system is set up – probably because it is unfeasible.
If any one of the five above-listed players had acted in good faith – any one of them – this mess never could have happened. But now that it has, people want a scapegoat.
Funny? No. Scary!
[repost from HN]
This is bs. The *first version* was leaked and it was wrong, but it wasn’t released properly.
Cringely is making this story bigger than it was.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/22/51558/that-jp-morgan-picture-official-redux/
“Apparently, the version we got was a “draft”. Oops.”
s/Wall St. can’t count/Cringely can’t research like a decent blogger/
I can only echo Cringely’s comments. In my world as well, incompetence is rampant!
Incompetence? Really? Call me cynical but to me the happenings of the last year have demonstrated pretty conclusively the culture of greed, fraud and thievery underlying our global financial system.
Was the misrepresentation of financial data in this chart really a mistake, or was it a deliberate choice to overstate (sell more persuasively) the case for its intended audience?
I teach college courses that use Math skills. This type of mistake doesn’t surprise me at all. Today’s students have no understanding of the magnitude between numbers. I get answers to problems that are a factor of 1,000 away from the correct answer and they don’t realize their answer is not in the ballpark.
Shows that “Wall Street” really has one dimensional thinking.
This reminds me the of the chatter regarding car fuel efficiency a few months ago. It was along the lines of; which is better for the environment, improving the mileage of a car from 30mpg to 37mpg or from 15mpg to 20mpg? The intuitive answer would be the former, mathematically it’s the later. In the first instance you would be burning about 19% less fuel, in the later it would be 25% less.
[...] Great chart here: http://www.cringely.com/2009/02/wa…; [...]
[...] I, Cringely » Blog Archive » Wall Street Can’t Count – Cringely on … [...]
I’ve worked in a dozen industries, and bankers were by far the least intelligent, and least motivated to even attempt competence.
The thing that’s funny to me is not that bankers sold toxic products, but that they BOUGHT THEIR OWN toxic products.
This has been discussed elsewhere before …
In English:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/21/51493/bank-picture-du-jour-redux/
In German:
http://egghat.blogspot.com/2009/01/groe-blasen-kleine-blasen.html
I preferred focusing on the Price Equity ratio rather than MarketCap, as we’re dealing a classic numbers phenomena, where small changes in one number may significantly change another ratio,
EXPLANATION: Using a ‘hypothetical’ model, we’ll start with: $100 in Total Assets, $95 Debt, leaving $5 of Equity.
Let’s assume that 60% of the Total Assets represent Loans and Trading Assets (Note that Citi had 61% in YE2007).
Now, let’s assume that the Loan and Trading Assets were understated by 5%. Then Total Assets would increase by $3. (5% X $60 Trading Assets = $3 increase in Total Assets). Not unrealistic, since Pandit is a relatively new CEO.
Since Total Debt has not changed, the resultant Equity would increase by $3, from $5 to $8, or a whopping 60% !!!
If Shareholder Equity were to jump by 60%, in my opinion Share Price would subsequently skyrocket, with the associated increase Market Cap.
[...] Cringely | Thanks, [...]
[...] Wall Street Can’t Count Robert X. Cringely February 12th, 2009 http://www.cringely.com/2009/02/wall-street-cant-count/ [...]
[...] has been some confusion about a previous graph released by JP Morgan. JP Morgan’s research team had released a graph that compared the data points using circles, [...]
You miss the point. The bankers on Wall Street are very smart; for the most part they worked within the rules of the system to maximize their personal gain (massive bonuses), while the losses they had were limited to losing their job and losing some money on paper in company stock options.
The losses they produced came at the cost of first their shareholders and investors (the amount from positive to near zero), and secondly, taxpayers, who end up covering for the rest of the losses (all the negative amount).
The fallacy of the people who say “less government regulation is better” is that limited liability corporations are a government creation and bankruptcy is a government creation. Both serve to increase the amount of risk that people take, which is often a good thing, but it breaks down when the best interests of the employees fail to match the best interests of the company.
One way to fix banking without massive regulation overhaul is to partially end limited liability status for banks. This was described in Adam Smith’s history of Scottish banking, where banking debts beyond the bank’s assets were backed by the owners–if the banks lost money beyond the bank’s assets, customers could still get their money, via the owners’ liability. In this situation, the bankers were of course very careful about not making investments that could potentially bankrupt not just the company, but themselves!
I doubt this was a mistake. What I use for bubble charts (Excel) actually makes the conversion to compares area and not diameter. To replicate this chart in Excel I had reverse engineer the numbers and calculate new diameters to trick the program in providing the misleading visual comparison. Shock and awe short selling, or the analyst is puffing up his career. This was deliberate.
[...] Depois da fase da falta de liquidez, o mercado entrou numa crise de solvência, que ocorre pela perda de valor patrimonial dos bancos. O gráfico ao lado mostra um mapa da desvalorização dos bancos de Wall Street (“Wall Street Can’t Count”) [...]
jgtlezol…
jgtlezol…
[...] написав Роберт Крінглі Нічого дивного, що в нас глобальна фінансова [...]
i.a.guy: No, the intuitive answer is correct. Remember, the question was which is better for the environment, not which is the greater increase in efficiency. The environment benefits more by a vehicle going 7 miles farther on a gallon of gas compared to 5 miles per gallon.
How does one even _cause_ a charting tool to produce an error like this?
Did they do it with Excel somehow? Anyone recognize the thing?
Did they have some poor graphic artist draw the circles and hand-label them?
[...] Here: http://www.cringely.com/2009/02/w…; [...]
[...] me of Bob Cringely’s excellent post on the bailout of the US banks, back when he was writing for [...]
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