Surviving 2009
Microsoft
Microsoft may or may not make a deal for Yahoo’s search service. What neither firm realizes yet is there is a better way to do searches with value advertising. It will be easier than what Google is doing and can produce more tangible results. Right now both firms are in the mind set of “competing with Google” instead of being creative and innovative. When they start thinking independently and start tuning into what the customer needs, Google will have some competition.
Apple
If Apple would port its Mac software (iWork, iLife, Final Cut, etc) to Windows it could quickly OWN the software market. Microsoft’s competitive advantage is not Windows — it is Office. Apple could take them out if it chose to. They won’t in 2009. But if the economic crisis really hurts Apple’s 2009 business, taking business away from Microsoft in 2010 could become a real consideration.
Android, Google’s phone software will suddenly become much better and will become the preferred software platform for the cell phone industry. Competitors of the iPhone will jump on the Android bandwagon and rush many new products to market in 2009. This will force AT&T and Apple into some uncomfortable decisions. Should AT&T be open to iPhone competitive products? Should Apple open up to other telco providers?
IBM
Thanks to the economic crisis, the IT industry will take a beating. To survive many IT providers will cut costs and services to the point of driving away customers. IBM is more diversified and has deeper financial reserves. In time customers will begin to return to IBM, but with some new expectations. They’ll be willing to pay more for help desk workers who speak understandably. They will want to see more people on site, more face-to-face support. This won’t stop the rush to offshore IT jobs. It will however signal a change in the direction of the pendulum and will force IT providers to rethink their business model.
So far IBM and most IT providers have cut support costs by shipping work offshore to lower paid workers. Someone in the industry will finally realize there is another way to cut — by using quality improvement techniques to reduce the occurrence of problems. This will become a game changer in the industry. Sadly IBM is too big, too bureaucratic, too set in its ways to catch this wave. What will happen instead is firms will start in-sourcing their IT again. Watch for this in the next 5 years.
Yahoo
Someone will buy a controlling interest in Yahoo. There will finally be a big house cleaning of Yahoo’s board and senior management. Then either of two things will happen. The new leadership will unlock Yahoo’s value and creativity — and Yahoo will soar again. Or, Yahoo will flounder and continue to become less relevant over time.
DTV
There will be problems with conversion to DTV. It will take months, perhaps a couple years for the problems to become apparent. The original NTSC system was basically an “open” system. All stations, satellite, and cable providers used it and it worked on every television made. With DTV content providers will attempt to introduce proprietary technology in an attempt to “lock in customers.” Only open-air transmissions will use DTV. Cable and satellite will use different and proprietary digital communications. Cable and satellite will start increasing their prices to the point where consumers start spending less. To make matters worse, the Internet will become a big provider of DTV content and it will also use “different” technology. At the same time ISP’s will implement bandwidth restrictions to thwart DTV content that is not their own. It won’t take long for the S consumer to get very upset with things.
Internet Centric devices
Theft of smart phones and Internet centric devices will become a big problem. Thieves will figure out how to steal identity information, raid bank accounts and investments, and so on. This will become a big problem.
Intel/AMD
Intel will launch an 8-core processor for the PC market. It’s price point will be too high for the consumer market and the product will languish — forcing Intel to lower the prices of its product line. Worse, Microsoft will limit its support of this chip to Vista. While we can expect Vista to continue to get better and better, the extra cost and hassle of Microsoft’s software, Office upgrades, etc will limit sales. Apple will swoop in and take more market share.
Obama
As a result of all the economic problems and scandals on Wall Street, I predict the Obama administration will propose a comprehensive financial monitoring system for the banking and investment community. It will be proposed in 2009 and will take a few years to implement. With it government agencies will have the means to thoroughly monitor and regulate the industry.
The Obama administration will move forward, as promised with a national program to computerize medical records. They will however, miss one of the greatest values of such an effort. Because of privacy concern, government ignorance of technology, etc the system will not have the ability for the medical industry to do data mining. With computerized records we will finally have the ability to spot drug interaction problems and perform research on the effectiveness of treatments. With data mining with patient privacy protection, our health care system can be greatly improved. We will miss that opportunity.
The Obama administration and/or Google will create a new Google Gov service. Like its news service, Google Gov will start tracking everything going on in Congress. Committee hearings, votes, discussion of bills and amendments will be captured by Google and made public within days. We will finally be able to see in real time what our elected leaders are really doing, who is influencing them, etc. This will be a game changer.
Am I allowed to say “first post?”
Bob’s First Comment Evah
Man, I hope you’re right about Google Gov.
Bob – Good to see you are going to keep writing here. The thought of not getting an occasional Cringely update was certainly unpleasant. I’d definitely pay at least a dollar or two an episode to start seeing those Nerd TV season two shows. Any chance you could put them up on iTunes?
Good luck on the new start. I always look forward to reading your columns.
ok, i just have to ask: who is the hot chick in the pic? second, will nerdtv ever see season 2?
“If Apple would port its Mac software (iWork, iLife, Final Cut, etc) to Windows it could quickly OWN the software market.”
Bob: those people who still willingly choose to use Windows do so because they are utterly and completely in terror of anything that resembles “change”. Consider that IE, on Windows, still has a higher market share than either Firefox or Apple’s Safari; both of which completely run CIRCLES around IE. IE hasn’t been half-way decent in about a decade– the first version after MSFT “liberated” the product from Spyglass was decent– mostly because the competition, Netscape, was sucking then.
But, if we argue on merits, you are right. I’ve used Powerpoint for years, and Keynote 1 year and Keynote is MUCH easier to use and gives a MUCH better looking result– and exports FLAWLESSLY to ppt or pdf. iMovie Rocks. Preview is much faster and more stable than Adobe Reader– you get the idea.
Hi Bob!
Thanks for continuing to write. I think I’m your first Google Reader subscriber, and it would be a privilege to be your first commenter too.
I appreciate all you’ve taught me over the years and I look forward to learning more.
All the very best
John (Gordon) Faughnan
Google Gov services. I like it. So do Google agents follow congress members around, recording everything?
No podcast???
Glad to be your first commenter
Interesting point about Apple porting their software to windows. I don’t think it will happen because they want Mac sales. Maybe they will produce “light” versions that are more or less extended demos to show people a snippet of the Mac experience. Or even an online document suite, the hook is you need a Mac or Apple netbook/tablet device to access stuff offline.
2009 will be the year of Frog again. Bring back the Frog! Good luck with your blog, er, column.
The issue with the medical records isn’t so much privacy from other people but privacy from the medical system and health insurers in particular. Unless you have a spotless (and hence empty) record, the effect of the system seeing your records will be to increase your costs and have care refused. If employers also get to see them then there could also be employment problems.
G’Day from Australia!
Thanks for a great 11 years. Will the frog ever make a return though?
After following your previous site, it’s good to know that you have a new home. You may not always be right, but your column’s are always entertaining. Please keep the columns comming.
Woo! First post, new website. Sweet.
Wouldn’t the proposed octcore processor work on XP, Vista and Linux straight away? As soon as the motherboard supports it, wouldn’t it just show up in your OS as 8 cores? Shouldn’t require any extra programming over dual core, like after dual core, n cores should just work?
Microsoft – will continue to fail at search
Apple – if it does port iLife to Windows (XP but NOT Vista … not yet anyway), it’ll be a crippled version, why do it unless it really has to?
Google – Android will do to the iPhone what Windows did to the Mac. Will Apple license Mobile OS X to other manufacturers?
IBM – Dodged a bullet this year and may do it again in 2009. Some upstart will steal its lunch in several years
Yahoo! – toast in 2009. Expect a fire sale. An enterprising online business firm will buy the brand name and re-launch under re-branding.
DTV – the mightiest train wreck ever. Millions of lower income people have not switched yet (a few unenlightened upper and middle income people haven’t switched yet either). Converter boxes (many phony) on ebay and craigslist going for a premium. Local and network TV stream programming over the internet as a stop gap. Notice there aren’t ANY portable digital televisions, yet? Some analog UHF stations (they don’t have to be digital yet) up power and grab a few remaining viewers (a la Big Time TV from Max Headroom:20 Minutes Into The Future) .
Obama administration – the government will become slightly less opaque. Some prescient lawmakers will learn how to circumvent the new openness (to their eventual detriment) while other exploit the new openness to achieve their own ends.
Security – by end of 2010, although there will increasingly tough encryption and security features on many internet and mobile devices, people will continue to make it easy for cyber crooks and office creepers to steal vital information from them. You can’t underestimate the ingenuity of sheer stupidity.
A Linux distribution will make the great leap and infiltrate the mainstream as a serious competitor to OS X/Windows when an easy WYSIWYG Google-apps based desktop that is easy to upgrade and download updates is released and installed on a number of OEM boxes and netbooks.
[...] sollte iWork und co für Windows anbieten Unter dem Motto “Surviving 2009” – “Überleben 2009″ hat Technik-Nerd Robert X. Cringely eine kleine Anregung [...]
I was very tempted just to write “first post”, but this is so much easier then that darned Captcha thing I have to say: it’s worth switching from pbs.org just for that
.
Good luck Bob! Here is one reader that’ll keep track of your work wherever or however you publish it.
Hi Bob.
Just listened to your last PBS podcast while out running this morning and thought I would check out the new web site. Good luck with your new ventures.
I will be checking in regularly as I will need my Cringely fix as I have needed for years.
BTW, you should think about the big IT vendor elephant in the room that doesn’t make a lot of noise (yes I work for them) – HP.
Keep up the great work!
Mike
I have updated my RSS feed. Welcome to your new home, Mr. Cringely. I hope it’s the beginning of a short new era that precedes a long new era in the (paying) arms of a major publisher.
I’m surprised Windows 7 is not mentioned, here or elsewhere. I would have thought it worthy of a savory prediction or two.
I’ve read every one of your PBS columns, and learned a lot. Will they still be archived at pbs.org? Or will you move them over here? Either way, I hope they will still be around.
Good luck with your new venture!
Bob,
I will miss you articles on PBS (just read the last one). But honestly, I feel they have went downhill over the last year or so. Maybe it’s the fact that the PC revolution is starting to wind down. The key players are in place and have no new great ideas. Heck, even Steve Jobs is moving on. There just isn’t anything left worth talking about if Apple isn’t behind it. Everything else by any other company just isn’t as polished or as user-friendly. Should we admit technology has become boring?
Two things though: The demise of Season 2 of Nerd TV was a real disappointment. What gives? You’re a smart guy. You understand technology. Burn the episodes to DVD and sell them online! How hard could it be (unless somehow there is licensing involved or PBS wants a cut)? If there is anything worth listening to it’s a great story and I am sure your guests have plenty to tell.
Secondly, what happened to your foil HD idea? MIA? What gives?
Good luck in the future, Bob, wherever it may take you.
Bob,
Good to see you still going strong on the new web site….
I’m not sure that Apple can really port its software to windows – its done this with iTunes and safari – but neither are really superb bits of software away from OS X.
Time will tell…
Michael
Best of luck on the new site. We’ll be watching…
Bob, two things.
1) One of my friends is going to complain “what about Sun?” even though you, I and he all know the response is “they don’t matter.” I feel obligated to ask anyway.
2) “ISP’s?” Et tu, Cringely?
3) Welcome back.
Bob-
Congratulations on starting the next chapter in your writing life. I’ve been reading (and watching) your work for years, and hope to do so for years to come. Best of luck.
Regards,
Charlie
PS. Who is the mysterious woman in the banner at the top of the page?
Apple has better alternatives for 2009 than attacking Microsoft and fanning old embers.
Wanted for 2009: iHome
They can take what they have already:
8-core MacPro, 1-4T storage / AppleTV / Airport Express / OS X Server
Then add:
-an updated scheduler that allows up to 8 simultaneous users; each user has highest priority for one core, Xgrid allocates unused capacity; myriad input/output devices (mostly wireless; include HDMI) allocated to one user
-Tivo functionality (Apple can do much better)
-stripped down netbooks that operate with the iHome as its cloud, or on its own but slowly
What have you got?
A new home IT ecosystem for the entire family: one muscle machine near the HDTV, fed and feeding dumber devices for each family member. It removes the disadvantage of using the cloud by placing it nearby. A no-muss, no-fuss network for the home.
Now, for the entire family you have one, say, $4-5K machine + 3 netbooks + 2 iPhones + a partridge in a pair tree, which is less expensive than 3-4 fully outfitted MacBooks. Good for the family’s wallet.
These home-wide economies of scale also bring family members into the Apple ecosystem that had otherwise resisted, say workers in a Windows-centric job. The same ecosystem could also be employed in small businesses or small departments. Naked netbooks are then available, too, to those that want them. Good for Apple’s wallet.
It also has greater functionality adding shared music, video, photo storage for the family; greater power for computer-intensive tasks; control over TV and pay-per-view for the household. Good for each user.
Wouldn’t every Apple family of 3 or more want one? Sounds profitable to me.
What do you think?
Great predictions! Glad to see you’re going to be carrying on your blog at this new site. Have a great 2009!
Bob,
Are you gonna start posting a weekly column here? Somewhere else? The thought of going with out my weekly fix is a little troubling……
Nice new site Bob. But about this greying of the font’s. It may be new and suave,
but me being a Silver Surfer my eyes ain’t. Reminds me of that yellow chalk in
grammar school yuk. We’ll looking forward to your new observations and commiseration’s until the next shoe flies.
Fast Fred
Glad to see you are still around to read ever week Bob. Best of luck with the new venture!
OK, where is the signup for a continuing stream of commentary and predictions?
Actually, at least here in Brazil, Apple (for our surprise) is already starting to dominate the software market.
Lots of people is just starting to change their Windows notebooks to Macbooks and, guess what: most of them are NOT using Office!
Thanks for setting up a new home with an RSS feed; looking forward to continued Cringely goodness from time to time…
…K
First!?
All the best for 2009 and beyond. – Already got the pbs bookmark deleted and replaced by cringely.com.
Thanks
Matt
The Swedes have used medical data mining to good advantage:
The ‘half knee’ replacement, which was originally thought of as a temporary stop gap, has proved to be better than a full replacement because it takes over load from a failing knee and helps the real knee heal. This would not have been noticed without data mining.
Congrats on the new site! Bookmarked! Keep up the interesting commentary.
Can’t believe nobody else has commented yet. Probably all sitting in a moderation queue someplace.
Anyway, good “first” post. I wonder if by “Vista” you’re including Windows 7, which it’s looking increasingly likely will be with us in 2009. Consumer satisfaction with FCC-style DTV (8VSB) is likely to take a knock when people realize that European-style DTV (COFDM) doesn’t suffer from the same multipath distortion issues.
BTW, will you be continuing with the podcast? I’ll miss you dulcet tones while walking the dog, otherwise…
Congrats on breaking out on your own. I’ve got nothing against WordPress but hopefully a tech guru like yourself will eventually put together a snazzier site than this one. Love the picture though.
The ultimate financial reform would be to separate securities underwriters from people who sell securities or give financial advice. This would inhibit the pushing of garbage to the investor. No more morning conference calls in brokerage firms telling the sales force what to sell today. It wouldn’t hurt to imprision those who knowingly promote the garbage either.
Glad to hear I won’t have to wean myself off my Cringely addiction!
So who’s the lovely lady at the top of the screen?
I’m going to miss your PBS audio podcast!
I think you are correct about the new financial system oversight structure that will be put in place.
In fact, I think this will be considered part of his economic stimulus plan.
One of the big things people are talking about right now is how chronically understaffed the SEC has been. I think we are going to see big changes at SEC and I think we are going to finally see a lot more hires in that area. With all the people on Wall Street who have been laid off recently, there’s a ton of talent just wandering around like Zombies.
The government will pick them up and use them to begin more closely monitoring things. This will help reduce unemployment and at the same time help improve the transparency and reliability of our struggling and corrupt financial sector.
PS… Slashcode man: it’s got threaded comments.
Think about it.
Bob,
Please make the following changes to the government predictions:
The Obama administration will get legislation passed for computerized medical records. The whole procurement and system design process will be a giant boondoggle, even worse than the next generation air traffic control system. Huge amounts of money will be give to EDS, IBM and other large IT providers, the systems will be brittle, buggy and completely out of date when delivered at the end of 2018.
Okay, that’s anina.net standing next to Bob. The picture in the header is the same one in the PBS “About Bob” page (http://www.pbs.org/cringely/about/). If you google “360 Fashion” (the credit in the photo) + “Cringely” you will find that PBS did a documentary about her.
Oh, and “42nd post,” or something like that.
Bob,
Great new site, and it will be easier to find when I’m on a different computer.
Apple:
Unless they overhaul Numbers, there is little chance of Apple taking over the office document industry. It is just too limited for real office work. Pages needs some work too, but it’s darn good as it is.
Android:
I’ve been saddled with WinMobile/WinCE/PoketPC for years in order to get my exchange email. I got an iPhone 3G this summer, and for the first time in 7 years I REGULARLY use my phone to communicate via email. It was just too much of a pain with mobile Outlook….
Oh yeah… Android…
The point is, if Google can “clean up” the android interface, and license ActiveSync for the phone… Apple will have it’s only serious competition in the mobile phone space.
DTV:
Yeah, it’s going to be a mess. But nobody will notice because the people who only get their TV over-the-air won’t have enough of a voice to make anyone listen.
In a very scientifically conducted survey I conducted recently, I asked how people received their television:
Cable=15
Satellite=8
OTA=0
Nice new digs, Bob. I’ll be looking forward to continued insight, revelations and wit.